Top 14 Predictions for Round 23
Team Ratings for Round 23
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stade Toulousain | 8.04 | 4.80 | 3.20 |
| La Rochelle | 7.04 | 2.32 | 4.70 |
| Clermont Auvergne | 6.35 | 3.22 | 3.10 |
| Lyon Rugby | 4.71 | 5.61 | -0.90 |
| Racing-Metro 92 | 4.47 | 6.21 | -1.70 |
| Bordeaux-Begles | 3.07 | 2.83 | 0.20 |
| Montpellier | 2.31 | 2.30 | 0.00 |
| RC Toulonnais | 1.78 | 3.56 | -1.80 |
| Stade Francais Paris | -0.23 | -3.22 | 3.00 |
| Castres Olympique | -0.58 | -0.47 | -0.10 |
| Brive | -1.74 | -3.26 | 1.50 |
| Section Paloise | -3.43 | -4.48 | 1.00 |
| Aviron Bayonnais | -6.14 | -4.13 | -2.00 |
| SU Agen | -15.08 | -4.72 | -10.40 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 150 matches played, 101 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 67.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aviron Bayonnais vs. Castres Olympique | Apr 30 | 23 – 26 | 0.40 | FALSE |
| 2 | Clermont Auvergne vs. Brive | May 02 | 37 – 27 | 14.20 | TRUE |
| 3 | Racing-Metro 92 vs. Stade Francais Paris | May 02 | 29 – 35 | 11.40 | FALSE |
| 4 | RC Toulonnais vs. SU Agen | May 02 | 34 – 17 | 23.20 | TRUE |
Predictions for Round 23
Here are the predictions for Round 23. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Castres Olympique vs. Lyon Rugby | May 08 | Castres Olympique | 0.20 |
| 2 | Aviron Bayonnais vs. Bordeaux-Begles | May 09 | Bordeaux-Begles | -3.70 |
| 3 | Brive vs. Stade Francais Paris | May 09 | Brive | 4.00 |
| 4 | Montpellier vs. La Rochelle | May 09 | Montpellier | 0.80 |
| 5 | Racing-Metro 92 vs. Clermont Auvergne | May 09 | Racing-Metro 92 | 3.60 |
| 6 | RC Toulonnais vs. Stade Toulousain | May 09 | Stade Toulousain | -0.80 |
| 7 | SU Agen vs. Section Paloise | May 09 | Section Paloise | -6.10 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »