May 4, 2021

NRL Predictions for Round 9

Team Ratings for Round 9

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 16.41 14.53 1.90
Roosters 14.12 10.25 3.90
Panthers 11.60 8.88 2.70
Rabbitohs 10.50 7.73 2.80
Eels 7.91 1.68 6.20
Raiders 1.07 6.98 -5.90
Warriors -1.53 -1.84 0.30
Sharks -1.75 -0.76 -1.00
Sea Eagles -2.76 -4.77 2.00
Dragons -3.46 -4.95 1.50
Knights -6.39 -2.61 -3.80
Wests Tigers -6.76 -3.07 -3.70
Titans -6.91 -7.22 0.30
Cowboys -10.36 -8.05 -2.30
Broncos -10.51 -11.16 0.60
Bulldogs -13.16 -7.62 -5.50

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 64 matches played, 44 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 68.8%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Raiders vs. Rabbitohs Apr 29 20 – 34 -4.80 TRUE
2 Storm vs. Sharks Apr 30 40 – 14 20.10 TRUE
3 Broncos vs. Titans Apr 30 36 – 28 -2.50 FALSE
4 Panthers vs. Sea Eagles May 01 28 – 16 18.60 TRUE
5 Bulldogs vs. Eels May 01 10 – 32 -17.20 TRUE
6 Knights vs. Roosters May 01 4 – 38 -14.10 TRUE
7 Warriors vs. Cowboys May 02 24 – 20 9.90 TRUE
8 Dragons vs. Wests Tigers May 02 8 – 16 9.30 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 9

Here are the predictions for Round 9. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Rabbitohs vs. Storm May 06 Storm -2.90
2 Panthers vs. Sharks May 07 Panthers 16.30
3 Eels vs. Roosters May 07 Roosters -3.20
4 Raiders vs. Knights May 08 Raiders 10.50
5 Wests Tigers vs. Titans May 08 Wests Tigers 3.10
6 Cowboys vs. Broncos May 08 Cowboys 3.10
7 Sea Eagles vs. Warriors May 09 Sea Eagles 1.80
8 Dragons vs. Bulldogs May 09 Dragons 12.70

 

avatar

David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »