April 28, 2021

NRL Predictions for Round 8

Team Ratings for Round 8

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 15.87 14.53 1.30
Roosters 12.41 10.25 2.20
Panthers 12.19 8.88 3.30
Rabbitohs 9.67 7.73 1.90
Eels 7.46 1.68 5.80
Raiders 1.89 6.98 -5.10
Warriors -0.99 -1.84 0.90
Sharks -1.21 -0.76 -0.40
Dragons -1.96 -4.95 3.00
Sea Eagles -3.36 -4.77 1.40
Knights -4.68 -2.61 -2.10
Titans -5.98 -7.22 1.20
Wests Tigers -8.26 -3.07 -5.20
Cowboys -10.91 -8.05 -2.90
Broncos -11.44 -11.16 -0.30
Bulldogs -12.71 -7.62 -5.10

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 56 matches played, 38 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 67.9%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Panthers vs. Knights Apr 22 24 – 6 20.30 TRUE
2 Titans vs. Rabbitohs Apr 23 30 – 40 -13.30 TRUE
3 Eels vs. Broncos Apr 23 46 – 6 18.20 TRUE
4 Sharks vs. Bulldogs Apr 24 12 – 18 18.70 FALSE
5 Cowboys vs. Raiders Apr 24 26 – 24 -12.30 FALSE
6 Wests Tigers vs. Sea Eagles Apr 25 6 – 40 4.50 FALSE
7 Roosters vs. Dragons Apr 25 34 – 10 15.90 TRUE
8 Storm vs. Warriors Apr 25 42 – 20 19.30 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 8

Here are the predictions for Round 8. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Raiders vs. Rabbitohs Apr 29 Rabbitohs -4.80
2 Storm vs. Sharks Apr 30 Storm 20.10
3 Broncos vs. Titans Apr 30 Titans -2.50
4 Panthers vs. Sea Eagles May 01 Panthers 18.60
5 Bulldogs vs. Eels May 01 Eels -17.20
6 Knights vs. Roosters May 01 Roosters -14.10
7 Warriors vs. Cowboys May 02 Warriors 9.90
8 Dragons vs. Wests Tigers May 02 Dragons 9.30

 

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »