Top 14 Predictions for Round 22
Team Ratings for Round 22
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stade Toulousain | 7.63 | 4.80 | 2.80 |
| La Rochelle | 7.04 | 2.32 | 4.70 |
| Clermont Auvergne | 6.97 | 3.22 | 3.80 |
| Racing-Metro 92 | 5.47 | 6.21 | -0.70 |
| Lyon Rugby | 4.37 | 5.61 | -1.20 |
| Bordeaux-Begles | 3.07 | 2.83 | 0.20 |
| Montpellier | 2.31 | 2.30 | 0.00 |
| RC Toulonnais | 2.22 | 3.56 | -1.30 |
| Castres Olympique | -0.82 | -0.47 | -0.30 |
| Stade Francais Paris | -1.31 | -3.22 | 1.90 |
| Brive | -2.03 | -3.26 | 1.20 |
| Section Paloise | -2.95 | -4.48 | 1.50 |
| Aviron Bayonnais | -5.90 | -4.13 | -1.80 |
| SU Agen | -15.51 | -4.72 | -10.80 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 143 matches played, 96 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 67.1%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Section Paloise vs. Aviron Bayonnais | Apr 17 | 43 – 33 | 8.20 | TRUE |
| 2 | Castres Olympique vs. Stade Toulousain | Apr 18 | 26 – 24 | -3.80 | FALSE |
| 3 | La Rochelle vs. Lyon Rugby | Apr 18 | 38 – 23 | 7.10 | TRUE |
Predictions for Round 22
Here are the predictions for Round 22. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bordeaux-Begles vs. Montpellier | Apr 24 | Bordeaux-Begles | 6.30 |
| 2 | Aviron Bayonnais vs. Castres Olympique | Apr 25 | Aviron Bayonnais | 0.40 |
| 3 | Brive vs. La Rochelle | Apr 25 | La Rochelle | -3.60 |
| 4 | Lyon Rugby vs. Clermont Auvergne | Apr 25 | Lyon Rugby | 2.90 |
| 5 | RC Toulonnais vs. SU Agen | Apr 25 | RC Toulonnais | 23.20 |
| 6 | Stade Francais Paris vs. Section Paloise | Apr 25 | Stade Francais Paris | 7.10 |
| 7 | Stade Toulousain vs. Racing-Metro 92 | Apr 25 | Stade Toulousain | 7.70 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »