Posts from March 2021 (28)

March 16, 2021

Super Rugby Predictions for Week 5

Team Ratings for Week 5

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 15.41 14.49 0.90
Blues 8.85 7.80 1.10
Hurricanes 6.15 7.13 -1.00
Chiefs 3.69 4.38 -0.70
Brumbies 2.91 1.47 1.40
Highlanders 2.39 2.70 -0.30
Reds 2.29 1.59 0.70
Rebels -3.59 -3.51 -0.10
Waratahs -7.36 -5.02 -2.30
Western Force -12.76 -13.05 0.30

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 14 matches played, 10 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 71.4%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Western Force vs. Rebels Mar 12 7 – 10 -3.80 TRUE
2 Crusaders vs. Chiefs Mar 13 39 – 17 16.60 TRUE
3 Brumbies vs. Reds Mar 13 38 – 40 6.80 FALSE
4 Blues vs. Highlanders Mar 14 39 – 17 11.20 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 5

Here are the predictions for Week 5. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Rebels vs. Waratahs Mar 19 Rebels 9.30
2 Hurricanes vs. Chiefs Mar 20 Hurricanes 8.00
3 Reds vs. Western Force Mar 20 Reds 20.50
4 Blues vs. Crusaders Mar 21 Crusaders -1.10

 

Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 14

Team Ratings for Round 14

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Exeter Chiefs 6.48 7.35 -0.90
Bristol 3.93 1.28 2.60
Sale Sharks 3.13 4.96 -1.80
Harlequins 2.62 -1.08 3.70
Wasps -0.55 5.66 -6.20
Northampton Saints -1.11 -2.48 1.40
Bath -1.78 2.14 -3.90
Gloucester -3.06 -1.02 -2.00
Leicester Tigers -4.19 -6.14 1.90
London Irish -5.01 -8.05 3.00
Worcester Warriors -6.63 -5.71 -0.90
Newcastle Falcons -6.93 -10.00 3.10

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 71 matches played, 41 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 57.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bristol vs. Wasps Mar 13 37 – 20 7.90 TRUE
2 Exeter Chiefs vs. Harlequins Mar 14 21 – 20 9.30 TRUE
3 Gloucester vs. Leicester Tigers Mar 14 14 – 20 7.00 FALSE
4 London Irish vs. Worcester Warriors Mar 15 20 – 17 6.70 TRUE
5 Newcastle Falcons vs. Bath Mar 14 19 – 38 1.40 FALSE
6 Northampton Saints vs. Sale Sharks Mar 14 17 – 14 -0.30 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 14

Here are the predictions for Round 14. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bath vs. Worcester Warriors Mar 21 Bath 9.40
2 Exeter Chiefs vs. Leicester Tigers Mar 21 Exeter Chiefs 15.20
3 Harlequins vs. Gloucester Mar 21 Harlequins 10.20
4 Newcastle Falcons vs. Wasps Mar 21 Wasps -1.90
5 Northampton Saints vs. Bristol Mar 21 Bristol -0.50
6 Sale Sharks vs. London Irish Mar 21 Sale Sharks 12.60

 

Pro14 Predictions for Round 16

Team Ratings for Round 16

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leinster 16.65 16.52 0.10
Munster 10.20 9.90 0.30
Ulster 8.13 4.58 3.50
Edinburgh 4.58 5.49 -0.90
Glasgow Warriors 2.63 5.66 -3.00
Connacht 2.52 0.70 1.80
Scarlets 0.55 1.98 -1.40
Cardiff Blues 0.06 0.08 -0.00
Cheetahs -0.46 -0.46 0.00
Ospreys -1.73 -2.82 1.10
Treviso -7.15 -3.50 -3.60
Dragons -7.21 -7.85 0.60
Zebre -13.85 -15.37 1.50
Southern Kings -14.92 -14.92 0.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 88 matches played, 59 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 67%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Zebre vs. Leinster Mar 13 31 – 48 -25.50 TRUE
2 Glasgow Warriors vs. Ospreys Mar 13 30 – 25 12.10 TRUE
3 Munster vs. Scarlets Mar 13 28 – 10 15.70 TRUE
4 Connacht vs. Edinburgh Mar 14 14 – 15 5.60 FALSE
5 Dragons vs. Ulster Mar 14 22 – 26 -9.90 TRUE
6 Treviso vs. Cardiff Blues Mar 15 14 – 29 0.50 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 16

Here are the predictions for Round 16. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Munster vs. Treviso Mar 20 Munster 23.90
2 Leinster vs. Ospreys Mar 20 Leinster 24.90
3 Ulster vs. Zebre Mar 20 Ulster 28.50
4 Dragons vs. Glasgow Warriors Mar 22 Glasgow Warriors -3.30
5 Cardiff Blues vs. Edinburgh Mar 23 Cardiff Blues 2.00
6 Scarlets vs. Connacht Mar 23 Scarlets 4.50

 

NRL Predictions for Round 2

Team Ratings for Round 2

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 14.35 14.53 -0.20
Roosters 12.29 10.25 2.00
Panthers 9.26 8.88 0.40
Rabbitohs 7.91 7.73 0.20
Raiders 7.43 6.98 0.50
Eels 1.50 1.68 -0.20
Sharks 0.37 -0.76 1.10
Warriors -1.15 -1.84 0.70
Knights -1.89 -2.61 0.70
Wests Tigers -3.53 -3.07 -0.50
Dragons -6.08 -4.95 -1.10
Sea Eagles -6.81 -4.77 -2.00
Titans -7.91 -7.22 -0.70
Bulldogs -8.34 -7.62 -0.70
Cowboys -8.43 -8.05 -0.40
Broncos -10.97 -11.16 0.20

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 8 matches played, 8 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 100%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Storm vs. Rabbitohs Mar 11 26 – 18 9.80 TRUE
2 Knights vs. Bulldogs Mar 12 32 – 16 8.00 TRUE
3 Broncos vs. Eels Mar 12 16 – 24 -9.80 TRUE
4 Warriors vs. Titans Mar 13 19 – 6 5.40 TRUE
5 Roosters vs. Sea Eagles Mar 13 46 – 4 18.00 TRUE
6 Panthers vs. Cowboys Mar 13 24 – 0 19.90 TRUE
7 Raiders vs. Wests Tigers Mar 14 30 – 12 13.00 TRUE
8 Dragons vs. Sharks Mar 14 18 – 32 -1.20 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 2

Here are the predictions for Round 2. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Eels vs. Storm Mar 18 Storm -9.90
2 Warriors vs. Knights Mar 19 Warriors 0.70
3 Titans vs. Broncos Mar 19 Titans 6.10
4 Bulldogs vs. Panthers Mar 20 Panthers -14.60
5 Sea Eagles vs. Rabbitohs Mar 20 Rabbitohs -11.70
6 Cowboys vs. Dragons Mar 20 Cowboys 0.70
7 Wests Tigers vs. Roosters Mar 21 Roosters -12.80
8 Sharks vs. Raiders Mar 21 Raiders -4.10

 

March 15, 2021

Obesity and Covid deaths

Q: Did you see 90% of Covid deaths are due to obesity?

A: No

Q: It’s on Newshub: “90 percent or 2.2 million of the 2.5 million deaths from the pandemic disease so far were in countries with high levels of obesity.”

A: So, if that’s true, what countries are we talking about?

Q: With high levels of obesity? Australia, New Zealand, some of the Pacific Island nations, USA, UK,…

A: And what don’t those countries have in common?

Q: Lots of Covid deaths, I suppose.  But Australia and NZ and the Pacific Island countries didn’t have many deaths just because they didn’t have many cases. They don’t tell you anything about the risk

A: Neither does the ‘report’, which says, according to Newshub, “the majority of global COVID-19 deaths have been in countries where many people are obese, with coronavirus fatality rates 10 times higher in nations where at least 50 percent of adults are overweight”

Q: That sounds bad, though? Ten times higher is a lot!

A: How much do you think being overweight increases the risk of death?

Q: Well, if 50% overweight means ten times the risk, maybe a factor of twenty?

A: Yeah nah. Less than double, according to that very same report. (PDF, p13)

Q: So where do they get such a strong association?

A: Well, what are the main risk factors for dying of Covid?

Q: Um. Age?

A: And?

Q: Heart disease? Diabetes?

A:

Q:

A:

Q: Having Covid?

A: Exactly.  So we’d need to look at the proportion of infected people dying (the case fatality rate), not the total number of deaths, and we’d ideally want to compare countries with similar age profiles. Instead, Newshub shows us a graph of deaths, basically like this

Q: Why are some of the dots black?

A: They are countries that were missing from the Johns Hopkins Covid data, and so were missing from the original graph, mostly small nations like Samoa and Tonga and Timor-Leste with very few cases

Q: And what’s the dot on the left that isn’t in the graph on Newshub?

A: Afghanistan. I don’t know why it’s not there.

Q: So what about for risk of dying if you get Covid?

A: Here’s what it looks like for case fatality rate

Q: That’s…surprisingly unimpressive. Well, except for that one country…

A: Yemen

Q: Things they don’t need right now, number #1

A:  Too true.

Q: So the massive correlation?

A: Well, overweight is common in the USA, the UK, Brazil, and various other large countries that have handled the pandemic badly. While I suppose you could argue that handling the pandemic well should go with handling other public health issues well, the empirical evidence would not really be in your favour on that one.  You could also listen to a slightly different approach to the data from David Spiegelhalter and Tim Harford on BBC’s “More or Less”

March 12, 2021

Briefly

  • I wrote about how many people we need to vaccinate and why it’s complicated, at the Spinoff
  • And an expanded version of this post about the Pfizer vaccine and obesity, for ‘Statisticians React to the News’, a blog of the International Statistical Institute
  • While it’s true that basically no deaths and hospitalisations have been seen in the vaccinated groups in the vaccine trials, there haven’t been very many seen in the control groups either. As Hilda Bastian explains in the Atlantic, the trials were designed to see differences in symptomatic Covid, not serious/fatal Covid, and there are uncertainties about differences between the vaccines and about whether they are extremely effective or just very  effective. “It’s tempting to believe that a simple, decisive message—even one that verges on hype—is what’s most needed at this crucial moment. But if the message could be wrong, that has consequences.”
  • The RECOVERY trial in the UK keeps churning out information about effectiveness of treatments for Covid based on large numbers of hospitalised patients. A new casualty: colchicine, a gout drug that appears beneficial in non-hospitalised patients in a smaller Canadian study.  RECOVERY is now expanding internationally, starting with Nepal and Indonesia
  • “But there’s something else interesting here. The fear-and-stress argument is introduced with an historical account about a medieval experiment conducted by medieval Persian philosopher Avicenna / Ibn Sīnā. The story is *total bullshit.* Avicenna did no such experiment.”   from ‘Calling Bullshit’
  • In one of Terry Pratchett’s Discworld books, there’s a personal organiser that does handwriting recognition. You show it a page of text, and it says “Yes, that’s handwiting, I’d recognise it anywhere”.  Something a bit similar is suggested by Police Commissioner Andrew Coster’s claim “There is no use of police photos for facial recognition unless it is someone who is an unidentified suspect for an offence.”. If that were true, the facial recognition system would be able to examine a photo and say “Yeah nah, don’t recognise him but he looks like a suspect “ but nothing more useful.  A facial recognition system needs basic training on faces (which is often problematic), a set of faces with known names (which is often problematic) , and a set of faces to recognise (which… well you get the idea). It matches the third to the second, using clues from the first about general face patterns.  With just the third group of photos, nothing much will happen.
March 9, 2021

Top 14 Predictions for Postponed Games

Team Ratings for Postponed Games

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Stade Toulousain 8.91 4.80 4.10
Clermont Auvergne 6.67 3.22 3.50
Racing-Metro 92 6.08 6.21 -0.10
La Rochelle 5.71 2.32 3.40
Bordeaux-Begles 4.06 2.83 1.20
Lyon Rugby 3.98 5.61 -1.60
RC Toulonnais 3.41 3.56 -0.20
Montpellier 1.38 2.30 -0.90
Stade Francais Paris -0.64 -3.22 2.60
Castres Olympique -1.06 -0.47 -0.60
Brive -3.11 -3.26 0.20
Section Paloise -3.69 -4.48 0.80
Aviron Bayonnais -7.19 -4.13 -3.10
SU Agen -13.96 -4.72 -9.20

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 132 matches played, 88 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 66.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Aviron Bayonnais vs. Lyon Rugby Mar 07 20 – 28 -4.10 TRUE
2 Bordeaux-Begles vs. Section Paloise Mar 07 29 – 23 13.50 TRUE
3 Castres Olympique vs. La Rochelle Mar 07 22 – 15 -0.80 FALSE
4 Montpellier vs. Clermont Auvergne Mar 06 22 – 16 0.70 TRUE
5 RC Toulonnais vs. Racing-Metro 92 Mar 07 25 – 21 1.60 TRUE
6 Stade Francais Paris vs. SU Agen Mar 07 40 – 21 18.00 TRUE
7 Stade Toulousain vs. Brive Mar 07 42 – 17 16.00 TRUE

 

Predictions for Postponed Games

Here are the predictions for Postponed Games. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Aviron Bayonnais vs. SU Agen Mar 14 Aviron Bayonnais 12.20

 

Super Rugby Predictions for Week 4

 

 

Team Ratings for Week 4

If you happen to check back on my predictions for Week 3 you will see a different margin for the Brumbies against the Rebels, though still a win for the Brumbies. I had that game as a home game for the Rebels. I think it might have been switched because of Covid. The return game on April 18 seems to have been switched also. Super Rugby has it as a home game for the Rebels while some other sites still have it as home for the Brumbies.

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 14.96 14.49 0.50
Blues 8.45 7.80 0.70
Hurricanes 6.28 7.13 -0.80
Chiefs 3.63 4.38 -0.70
Highlanders 3.18 2.70 0.50
Brumbies 2.53 1.47 1.10
Reds 1.94 1.59 0.30
Rebels -2.82 -3.51 0.70
Waratahs -7.39 -5.02 -2.40
Western Force -12.78 -13.05 0.30

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 10 matches played, 7 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 70%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Chiefs vs. Highlanders Mar 05 23 – 39 7.50 FALSE
2 Waratahs vs. Western Force Mar 05 16 – 20 12.00 FALSE
3 Crusaders vs. Hurricanes Mar 06 33 – 16 13.80 TRUE
4 Brumbies vs. Rebels Mar 06 27 – 24 11.50 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 4

Here are the predictions for Week 4. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Western Force vs. Rebels Mar 12 Rebels -4.50
2 Crusaders vs. Chiefs Mar 13 Crusaders 16.80
3 Brumbies vs. Reds Mar 13 Brumbies 6.10
4 Blues vs. Highlanders Mar 14 Blues 10.80

 

Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 13

Team Ratings for Round 13

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Exeter Chiefs 6.97 7.35 -0.40
Bristol 3.41 1.28 2.10
Sale Sharks 3.39 4.96 -1.60
Harlequins 2.13 -1.08 3.20
Wasps -0.03 5.66 -5.70
Northampton Saints -1.37 -2.48 1.10
Gloucester -2.35 -1.02 -1.30
Bath -2.82 2.14 -5.00
London Irish -4.71 -8.05 3.30
Leicester Tigers -4.90 -6.14 1.20
Newcastle Falcons -5.89 -10.00 4.10
Worcester Warriors -6.93 -5.71 -1.20

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 65 matches played, 38 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 58.5%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bath vs. Exeter Chiefs Mar 07 16 – 38 -3.40 TRUE
2 Harlequins vs. Northampton Saints Mar 08 37 – 19 6.80 TRUE
3 Leicester Tigers vs. London Irish Mar 06 33 – 32 4.90 TRUE
4 Sale Sharks vs. Newcastle Falcons Mar 06 31 – 16 13.60 TRUE
5 Wasps vs. Gloucester Mar 07 19 – 20 7.80 FALSE
6 Worcester Warriors vs. Bristol Mar 07 23 – 24 -6.50 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 13

Here are the predictions for Round 13. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bristol vs. Wasps Mar 13 Bristol 7.90
2 Exeter Chiefs vs. Harlequins Mar 14 Exeter Chiefs 9.30
3 Gloucester vs. Leicester Tigers Mar 14 Gloucester 7.00
4 London Irish vs. Worcester Warriors Mar 15 London Irish 6.70
5 Newcastle Falcons vs. Bath Mar 14 Newcastle Falcons 1.40
6 Northampton Saints vs. Sale Sharks Mar 14 Sale Sharks -0.30

 

Pro14 Predictions for Round 15

Team Ratings for Round 15

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leinster 17.42 16.52 0.90
Munster 10.00 9.90 0.10
Ulster 8.66 4.58 4.10
Edinburgh 3.98 5.49 -1.50
Glasgow Warriors 3.28 5.66 -2.40
Connacht 3.11 0.70 2.40
Scarlets 0.75 1.98 -1.20
Cheetahs -0.46 -0.46 0.00
Cardiff Blues -0.55 0.08 -0.60
Ospreys -2.37 -2.82 0.40
Treviso -6.53 -3.50 -3.00
Dragons -7.74 -7.85 0.10
Zebre -14.62 -15.37 0.70
Southern Kings -14.92 -14.92 0.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 82 matches played, 55 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 67.1%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Munster vs. Connacht Mar 06 20 – 17 12.80 TRUE
2 Zebre vs. Glasgow Warriors Mar 07 20 – 31 -11.50 TRUE
3 Ospreys vs. Dragons Mar 07 20 – 31 12.00 FALSE
4 Ulster vs. Leinster Mar 07 19 – 38 -2.50 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 15

Here are the predictions for Round 15. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Zebre vs. Leinster Mar 13 Leinster -25.50
2 Glasgow Warriors vs. Ospreys Mar 13 Glasgow Warriors 12.10
3 Munster vs. Scarlets Mar 13 Munster 15.70
4 Connacht vs. Edinburgh Mar 14 Connacht 5.60
5 Dragons vs. Ulster Mar 14 Ulster -9.90
6 Treviso vs. Cardiff Blues Mar 15 Treviso 0.50