Top 14 Predictions for Round 21
Team Ratings for Round 21
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stade Toulousain | 8.10 | 4.80 | 3.30 |
| Clermont Auvergne | 7.03 | 3.22 | 3.80 |
| La Rochelle | 6.35 | 2.32 | 4.00 |
| Racing-Metro 92 | 5.49 | 6.21 | -0.70 |
| Lyon Rugby | 4.95 | 5.61 | -0.70 |
| Bordeaux-Begles | 3.43 | 2.83 | 0.60 |
| RC Toulonnais | 2.47 | 3.56 | -1.10 |
| Montpellier | 2.17 | 2.30 | -0.10 |
| Stade Francais Paris | -1.03 | -3.22 | 2.20 |
| Castres Olympique | -1.28 | -0.47 | -0.80 |
| Brive | -2.03 | -3.26 | 1.20 |
| Section Paloise | -3.47 | -4.48 | 1.00 |
| Aviron Bayonnais | -6.13 | -4.13 | -2.00 |
| SU Agen | -15.49 | -4.72 | -10.80 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 140 matches played, 93 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 66.4%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aviron Bayonnais vs. Racing-Metro 92 | Mar 28 | 23 – 13 | -7.30 | FALSE |
| 2 | Bordeaux-Begles vs. La Rochelle | Mar 28 | 11 – 26 | 3.80 | FALSE |
| 3 | Brive vs. SU Agen | Mar 28 | 57 – 3 | 16.90 | TRUE |
| 4 | Castres Olympique vs. Section Paloise | Mar 28 | 38 – 33 | 8.10 | TRUE |
| 5 | Lyon Rugby vs. RC Toulonnais | Mar 28 | 54 – 16 | 6.10 | TRUE |
| 6 | Stade Francais Paris vs. Clermont Auvergne | Mar 28 | 27 – 34 | -1.80 | TRUE |
| 7 | Stade Toulousain vs. Montpellier | Mar 28 | 16 – 29 | 13.00 | FALSE |
Predictions for Round 21
Here are the predictions for Round 21. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Castres Olympique vs. Stade Toulousain | Apr 18 | Stade Toulousain | -3.90 |
| 2 | Clermont Auvergne vs. Brive | Apr 18 | Clermont Auvergne | 14.60 |
| 3 | La Rochelle vs. Lyon Rugby | Apr 18 | La Rochelle | 6.90 |
| 4 | Montpellier vs. RC Toulonnais | Apr 18 | Montpellier | 5.20 |
| 5 | Racing-Metro 92 vs. Stade Francais Paris | Apr 18 | Racing-Metro 92 | 12.00 |
| 6 | Section Paloise vs. Aviron Bayonnais | Apr 17 | Section Paloise | 8.20 |
| 7 | SU Agen vs. Bordeaux-Begles | Apr 18 | Bordeaux-Begles | -13.40 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »