Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 16
Team Ratings for Round 16
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Exeter Chiefs | 5.43 | 7.35 | -1.90 |
| Bristol | 4.08 | 1.28 | 2.80 |
| Harlequins | 4.08 | -1.08 | 5.20 |
| Sale Sharks | 4.03 | 4.96 | -0.90 |
| Northampton Saints | 0.59 | -2.48 | 3.10 |
| Wasps | -0.62 | 5.66 | -6.30 |
| Bath | -1.22 | 2.14 | -3.40 |
| Gloucester | -3.16 | -1.02 | -2.10 |
| Leicester Tigers | -3.85 | -6.14 | 2.30 |
| London Irish | -5.55 | -8.05 | 2.50 |
| Newcastle Falcons | -7.35 | -10.00 | 2.70 |
| Worcester Warriors | -9.55 | -5.71 | -3.80 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 83 matches played, 50 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 60.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bristol vs. Harlequins | Mar 28 | 35 – 33 | 5.00 | TRUE |
| 2 | Gloucester vs. Exeter Chiefs | Mar 27 | 34 – 18 | -6.30 | FALSE |
| 3 | Leicester Tigers vs. Newcastle Falcons | Mar 29 | 26 – 12 | 7.20 | TRUE |
| 4 | London Irish vs. Bath | Mar 28 | 36 – 33 | -0.40 | FALSE |
| 5 | Wasps vs. Sale Sharks | Mar 28 | 19 – 20 | 0.00 | FALSE |
| 6 | Worcester Warriors vs. Northampton Saints | Mar 28 | 14 – 62 | -1.50 | TRUE |
Predictions for Round 16
Here are the predictions for Round 16. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bath vs. Leicester Tigers | Apr 19 | Bath | 7.10 |
| 2 | Exeter Chiefs vs. Wasps | Apr 18 | Exeter Chiefs | 10.60 |
| 3 | Harlequins vs. Worcester Warriors | Apr 18 | Harlequins | 18.10 |
| 4 | Newcastle Falcons vs. Bristol | Apr 18 | Bristol | -6.90 |
| 5 | Northampton Saints vs. London Irish | Apr 17 | Northampton Saints | 10.60 |
| 6 | Sale Sharks vs. Gloucester | Apr 17 | Sale Sharks | 11.70 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »