NRL Predictions for Round 4
Team Ratings for Round 4
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Roosters | 12.97 | 10.25 | 2.70 |
| Storm | 12.97 | 14.53 | -1.60 |
| Panthers | 10.61 | 8.88 | 1.70 |
| Rabbitohs | 9.28 | 7.73 | 1.50 |
| Raiders | 5.93 | 6.98 | -1.00 |
| Eels | 4.34 | 1.68 | 2.70 |
| Warriors | -0.30 | -1.84 | 1.50 |
| Sharks | -1.06 | -0.76 | -0.30 |
| Knights | -2.42 | -2.61 | 0.20 |
| Dragons | -3.56 | -4.95 | 1.40 |
| Titans | -4.26 | -7.22 | 3.00 |
| Wests Tigers | -4.38 | -3.07 | -1.30 |
| Sea Eagles | -8.87 | -4.77 | -4.10 |
| Broncos | -9.55 | -11.16 | 1.60 |
| Bulldogs | -11.48 | -7.62 | -3.90 |
| Cowboys | -12.23 | -8.05 | -4.20 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 24 matches played, 17 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 70.8%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Panthers vs. Storm | Mar 25 | 12 – 10 | 0.30 | TRUE |
| 2 | Dragons vs. Sea Eagles | Mar 26 | 38 – 12 | 4.70 | TRUE |
| 3 | Rabbitohs vs. Roosters | Mar 26 | 26 – 16 | -3.00 | FALSE |
| 4 | Raiders vs. Warriors | Mar 27 | 31 – 34 | 11.80 | FALSE |
| 5 | Broncos vs. Bulldogs | Mar 27 | 24 – 0 | 1.00 | TRUE |
| 6 | Eels vs. Sharks | Mar 27 | 28 – 4 | 5.10 | TRUE |
| 7 | Knights vs. Wests Tigers | Mar 28 | 20 – 24 | 6.90 | FALSE |
| 8 | Cowboys vs. Titans | Mar 28 | 8 – 44 | 1.20 | FALSE |
Predictions for Round 4
Here are the predictions for Round 4. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sea Eagles vs. Panthers | Apr 01 | Panthers | -16.50 |
| 2 | Bulldogs vs. Rabbitohs | Apr 02 | Rabbitohs | -17.80 |
| 3 | Storm vs. Broncos | Apr 02 | Storm | 25.50 |
| 4 | Sharks vs. Cowboys | Apr 03 | Sharks | 14.20 |
| 5 | Titans vs. Raiders | Apr 03 | Raiders | -7.20 |
| 6 | Knights vs. Dragons | Apr 04 | Knights | 4.10 |
| 7 | Roosters vs. Warriors | Apr 04 | Roosters | 16.30 |
| 8 | Wests Tigers vs. Eels | Apr 05 | Eels | -5.70 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »