Pro14 Predictions for the Final and Postponed Matches
Team Ratings for the Final and Postponed Matches
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Leinster | 15.68 | 16.52 | -0.80 |
| Munster | 9.76 | 9.90 | -0.10 |
| Ulster | 8.80 | 4.58 | 4.20 |
| Edinburgh | 3.92 | 5.49 | -1.60 |
| Connacht | 2.47 | 0.70 | 1.80 |
| Glasgow Warriors | 2.11 | 5.66 | -3.60 |
| Cardiff Blues | 0.72 | 0.08 | 0.60 |
| Scarlets | 0.59 | 1.98 | -1.40 |
| Cheetahs | -0.46 | -0.46 | 0.00 |
| Ospreys | -0.76 | -2.82 | 2.10 |
| Dragons | -6.69 | -7.85 | 1.20 |
| Treviso | -6.70 | -3.50 | -3.20 |
| Zebre | -14.52 | -15.37 | 0.80 |
| Southern Kings | -14.92 | -14.92 | 0.00 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 94 matches played, 63 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 67%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Munster vs. Treviso | Mar 20 | 31 – 17 | 23.90 | TRUE |
| 2 | Leinster vs. Ospreys | Mar 20 | 19 – 24 | 24.90 | FALSE |
| 3 | Ulster vs. Zebre | Mar 20 | 49 – 3 | 28.50 | TRUE |
| 4 | Dragons vs. Glasgow Warriors | Mar 22 | 26 – 17 | -3.30 | FALSE |
| 5 | Cardiff Blues vs. Edinburgh | Mar 23 | 34 – 15 | 2.00 | TRUE |
| 6 | Scarlets vs. Connacht | Mar 23 | 41 – 36 | 4.50 | TRUE |
Predictions for the Final and Postponed Matches
Here are the predictions for the Final and Postponed Matches. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dragons vs. Edinburgh | Mar 29 | Edinburgh | -6.90 |
| 2 | Glasgow Warriors vs. Treviso | Mar 28 | Glasgow Warriors | 14.90 |
| 3 | Leinster vs. Munster | Mar 28 | Leinster | 10.90 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »