Top 14 Predictions for Round 20
Team Ratings for Round 20
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stade Toulousain | 8.90 | 4.80 | 4.10 |
| Clermont Auvergne | 6.67 | 3.22 | 3.50 |
| Racing-Metro 92 | 6.08 | 6.21 | -0.10 |
| La Rochelle | 5.72 | 2.32 | 3.40 |
| Bordeaux-Begles | 4.07 | 2.83 | 1.20 |
| Lyon Rugby | 4.01 | 5.61 | -1.60 |
| RC Toulonnais | 3.41 | 3.56 | -0.20 |
| Montpellier | 1.37 | 2.30 | -0.90 |
| Stade Francais Paris | -0.67 | -3.22 | 2.60 |
| Castres Olympique | -1.06 | -0.47 | -0.60 |
| Brive | -3.08 | -3.26 | 0.20 |
| Section Paloise | -3.69 | -4.48 | 0.80 |
| Aviron Bayonnais | -6.73 | -4.13 | -2.60 |
| SU Agen | -14.44 | -4.72 | -9.70 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 133 matches played, 89 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 66.9%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aviron Bayonnais vs. SU Agen | Mar 14 | 48 – 20 | 12.20 | TRUE |
Predictions for Round 20
Here are the predictions for Round 20. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aviron Bayonnais vs. Racing-Metro 92 | Mar 28 | Racing-Metro 92 | -7.30 |
| 2 | Bordeaux-Begles vs. La Rochelle | Mar 28 | Bordeaux-Begles | 3.80 |
| 3 | Brive vs. SU Agen | Mar 28 | Brive | 16.90 |
| 4 | Castres Olympique vs. Section Paloise | Mar 28 | Castres Olympique | 8.10 |
| 5 | Lyon Rugby vs. RC Toulonnais | Mar 28 | Lyon Rugby | 6.10 |
| 6 | Stade Francais Paris vs. Clermont Auvergne | Mar 28 | Clermont Auvergne | -1.80 |
| 7 | Stade Toulousain vs. Montpellier | Mar 28 | Stade Toulousain | 13.00 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »