March 16, 2021

Pro14 Predictions for Round 16

Team Ratings for Round 16

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leinster 16.65 16.52 0.10
Munster 10.20 9.90 0.30
Ulster 8.13 4.58 3.50
Edinburgh 4.58 5.49 -0.90
Glasgow Warriors 2.63 5.66 -3.00
Connacht 2.52 0.70 1.80
Scarlets 0.55 1.98 -1.40
Cardiff Blues 0.06 0.08 -0.00
Cheetahs -0.46 -0.46 0.00
Ospreys -1.73 -2.82 1.10
Treviso -7.15 -3.50 -3.60
Dragons -7.21 -7.85 0.60
Zebre -13.85 -15.37 1.50
Southern Kings -14.92 -14.92 0.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 88 matches played, 59 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 67%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Zebre vs. Leinster Mar 13 31 – 48 -25.50 TRUE
2 Glasgow Warriors vs. Ospreys Mar 13 30 – 25 12.10 TRUE
3 Munster vs. Scarlets Mar 13 28 – 10 15.70 TRUE
4 Connacht vs. Edinburgh Mar 14 14 – 15 5.60 FALSE
5 Dragons vs. Ulster Mar 14 22 – 26 -9.90 TRUE
6 Treviso vs. Cardiff Blues Mar 15 14 – 29 0.50 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 16

Here are the predictions for Round 16. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Munster vs. Treviso Mar 20 Munster 23.90
2 Leinster vs. Ospreys Mar 20 Leinster 24.90
3 Ulster vs. Zebre Mar 20 Ulster 28.50
4 Dragons vs. Glasgow Warriors Mar 22 Glasgow Warriors -3.30
5 Cardiff Blues vs. Edinburgh Mar 23 Cardiff Blues 2.00
6 Scarlets vs. Connacht Mar 23 Scarlets 4.50

 

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »