March 9, 2021

Top 14 Predictions for Postponed Games

Team Ratings for Postponed Games

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Stade Toulousain 8.91 4.80 4.10
Clermont Auvergne 6.67 3.22 3.50
Racing-Metro 92 6.08 6.21 -0.10
La Rochelle 5.71 2.32 3.40
Bordeaux-Begles 4.06 2.83 1.20
Lyon Rugby 3.98 5.61 -1.60
RC Toulonnais 3.41 3.56 -0.20
Montpellier 1.38 2.30 -0.90
Stade Francais Paris -0.64 -3.22 2.60
Castres Olympique -1.06 -0.47 -0.60
Brive -3.11 -3.26 0.20
Section Paloise -3.69 -4.48 0.80
Aviron Bayonnais -7.19 -4.13 -3.10
SU Agen -13.96 -4.72 -9.20

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 132 matches played, 88 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 66.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Aviron Bayonnais vs. Lyon Rugby Mar 07 20 – 28 -4.10 TRUE
2 Bordeaux-Begles vs. Section Paloise Mar 07 29 – 23 13.50 TRUE
3 Castres Olympique vs. La Rochelle Mar 07 22 – 15 -0.80 FALSE
4 Montpellier vs. Clermont Auvergne Mar 06 22 – 16 0.70 TRUE
5 RC Toulonnais vs. Racing-Metro 92 Mar 07 25 – 21 1.60 TRUE
6 Stade Francais Paris vs. SU Agen Mar 07 40 – 21 18.00 TRUE
7 Stade Toulousain vs. Brive Mar 07 42 – 17 16.00 TRUE

 

Predictions for Postponed Games

Here are the predictions for Postponed Games. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Aviron Bayonnais vs. SU Agen Mar 14 Aviron Bayonnais 12.20

 

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »