Super Rugby Predictions for Week 4
Team Ratings for Week 4
If you happen to check back on my predictions for Week 3 you will see a different margin for the Brumbies against the Rebels, though still a win for the Brumbies. I had that game as a home game for the Rebels. I think it might have been switched because of Covid. The return game on April 18 seems to have been switched also. Super Rugby has it as a home game for the Rebels while some other sites still have it as home for the Brumbies.
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Crusaders | 14.96 | 14.49 | 0.50 |
| Blues | 8.45 | 7.80 | 0.70 |
| Hurricanes | 6.28 | 7.13 | -0.80 |
| Chiefs | 3.63 | 4.38 | -0.70 |
| Highlanders | 3.18 | 2.70 | 0.50 |
| Brumbies | 2.53 | 1.47 | 1.10 |
| Reds | 1.94 | 1.59 | 0.30 |
| Rebels | -2.82 | -3.51 | 0.70 |
| Waratahs | -7.39 | -5.02 | -2.40 |
| Western Force | -12.78 | -13.05 | 0.30 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 10 matches played, 7 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 70%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chiefs vs. Highlanders | Mar 05 | 23 – 39 | 7.50 | FALSE |
| 2 | Waratahs vs. Western Force | Mar 05 | 16 – 20 | 12.00 | FALSE |
| 3 | Crusaders vs. Hurricanes | Mar 06 | 33 – 16 | 13.80 | TRUE |
| 4 | Brumbies vs. Rebels | Mar 06 | 27 – 24 | 11.50 | TRUE |
Predictions for Week 4
Here are the predictions for Week 4. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Western Force vs. Rebels | Mar 12 | Rebels | -4.50 |
| 2 | Crusaders vs. Chiefs | Mar 13 | Crusaders | 16.80 |
| 3 | Brumbies vs. Reds | Mar 13 | Brumbies | 6.10 |
| 4 | Blues vs. Highlanders | Mar 14 | Blues | 10.80 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »