NRL Predictions for Round 1
Team Ratings for Round 1
I have decided to not give home ground advantage to the Warriors for any games played at their Australian base on the Central Coast of New South Wales. I will treat all those games as being played on neutral ground.
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Storm | 14.53 | 14.53 | -0.00 |
| Roosters | 10.25 | 10.25 | 0.00 |
| Panthers | 8.88 | 8.88 | 0.00 |
| Rabbitohs | 7.73 | 7.73 | -0.00 |
| Raiders | 6.98 | 6.98 | 0.00 |
| Eels | 1.68 | 1.68 | -0.00 |
| Sharks | -0.76 | -0.76 | 0.00 |
| Warriors | -1.84 | -1.84 | 0.00 |
| Knights | -2.61 | -2.61 | -0.00 |
| Wests Tigers | -3.07 | -3.07 | -0.00 |
| Sea Eagles | -4.77 | -4.77 | -0.00 |
| Dragons | -4.95 | -4.95 | 0.00 |
| Titans | -7.22 | -7.22 | 0.00 |
| Bulldogs | -7.62 | -7.62 | -0.00 |
| Cowboys | -8.05 | -8.05 | -0.00 |
| Broncos | -11.16 | -11.16 | -0.00 |
Predictions for Round 1
Here are the predictions for Round 1. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Storm vs. Rabbitohs | Mar 11 | Storm | 9.80 |
| 2 | Knights vs. Bulldogs | Mar 12 | Knights | 8.00 |
| 3 | Broncos vs. Eels | Mar 12 | Eels | -9.80 |
| 4 | Warriors vs. Titans | Mar 13 | Warriors | 5.40 |
| 5 | Roosters vs. Sea Eagles | Mar 13 | Roosters | 18.00 |
| 6 | Panthers vs. Cowboys | Mar 13 | Panthers | 19.90 |
| 7 | Raiders vs. Wests Tigers | Mar 14 | Raiders | 13.00 |
| 8 | Dragons vs. Sharks | Mar 14 | Sharks | -1.20 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »
Nice work. 100% correct choosing the winners. The spread was off but mate, what a legend! Was looking to learn how to create a stat model to back up my personal predictions. Had the warriors in my head but no solid stats to reconfirm. In finding how to create my own model i found this handy site. Thank you so much.
4 years ago
Thanks. Look for posts on a Tuesday each week.
4 years ago