Top 14 Predictions for Round 18
Team Ratings for Round 18
I apparently missed another rescheduled game. The prediction is given below for completeness.
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stade Toulousain | 8.56 | 4.80 | 3.80 |
| Clermont Auvergne | 7.03 | 3.22 | 3.80 |
| Racing-Metro 92 | 6.26 | 6.21 | 0.00 |
| La Rochelle | 6.25 | 2.32 | 3.90 |
| Bordeaux-Begles | 4.58 | 2.83 | 1.80 |
| Lyon Rugby | 3.70 | 5.61 | -1.90 |
| RC Toulonnais | 3.25 | 3.56 | -0.30 |
| Montpellier | 1.01 | 2.30 | -1.30 |
| Stade Francais Paris | -0.71 | -3.22 | 2.50 |
| Castres Olympique | -1.58 | -0.47 | -1.10 |
| Brive | -2.78 | -3.26 | 0.50 |
| Section Paloise | -4.19 | -4.48 | 0.30 |
| Aviron Bayonnais | -6.91 | -4.13 | -2.80 |
| SU Agen | -13.90 | -4.72 | -9.20 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 125 matches played, 82 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 65.6%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | RC Toulonnais vs. Aviron Bayonnais | Feb 27 | 14 – 16 | 14.90 | FALSE |
| 2 | La Rochelle vs. Stade Toulousain | Feb 28 | 11 – 14 | 4.50 | FALSE |
| 3 | SU Agen vs. Clermont Auvergne | Feb 28 | 16 – 52 | -9.90 | TRUE |
Predictions for Round 18
Here are the predictions for Round 18. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aviron Bayonnais vs. Lyon Rugby | Mar 07 | Lyon Rugby | -4.10 |
| 2 | Bordeaux-Begles vs. Section Paloise | Mar 07 | Bordeaux-Begles | 13.50 |
| 3 | Castres Olympique vs. La Rochelle | Mar 07 | La Rochelle | -0.80 |
| 4 | Montpellier vs. Clermont Auvergne | Mar 06 | Montpellier | 0.70 |
| 5 | RC Toulonnais vs. Racing-Metro 92 | Mar 07 | RC Toulonnais | 1.60 |
| 6 | Stade Francais Paris vs. SU Agen | Mar 07 | Stade Francais Paris | 18.00 |
| 7 | Stade Toulousain vs. Brive | Mar 07 | Stade Toulousain | 16.00 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »