Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 12
Team Ratings for Round 12
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Exeter Chiefs | 6.01 | 7.35 | -1.30 |
| Bristol | 3.75 | 1.28 | 2.50 |
| Sale Sharks | 3.27 | 4.96 | -1.70 |
| Harlequins | 1.51 | -1.08 | 2.60 |
| Wasps | 0.48 | 5.66 | -5.20 |
| Northampton Saints | -0.75 | -2.48 | 1.70 |
| Bath | -1.85 | 2.14 | -4.00 |
| Gloucester | -2.86 | -1.02 | -1.80 |
| Leicester Tigers | -4.58 | -6.14 | 1.60 |
| London Irish | -5.03 | -8.05 | 3.00 |
| Newcastle Falcons | -5.78 | -10.00 | 4.20 |
| Worcester Warriors | -7.27 | -5.71 | -1.60 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 59 matches played, 33 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 55.9%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bristol vs. Leicester Tigers | Feb 28 | 17 – 3 | 12.60 | TRUE |
| 2 | Gloucester vs. Worcester Warriors | Feb 28 | 22 – 14 | 9.10 | TRUE |
| 3 | Newcastle Falcons vs. Harlequins | Feb 28 | 25 – 22 | -3.60 | FALSE |
| 4 | Northampton Saints vs. Bath | Mar 01 | 22 – 23 | 6.50 | FALSE |
| 5 | Sale Sharks vs. Exeter Chiefs | Feb 27 | 25 – 20 | 1.20 | TRUE |
| 6 | Wasps vs. London Irish | Feb 28 | 10 – 16 | 11.90 | FALSE |
Predictions for Round 12
Here are the predictions for Round 12. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bath vs. Exeter Chiefs | Mar 07 | Exeter Chiefs | -3.40 |
| 2 | Harlequins vs. Northampton Saints | Mar 08 | Harlequins | 6.80 |
| 3 | Leicester Tigers vs. London Irish | Mar 06 | Leicester Tigers | 4.90 |
| 4 | Sale Sharks vs. Newcastle Falcons | Mar 06 | Sale Sharks | 13.60 |
| 5 | Wasps vs. Gloucester | Mar 07 | Wasps | 7.80 |
| 6 | Worcester Warriors vs. Bristol | Mar 07 | Bristol | -6.50 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »