Super Rugby Predictions for Week 1
Team Ratings for Week 1
I was a bit unsure as to how to deal with Super Rugby this year but will treat it as one competition not separate Australian and New Zealand competitions followed by a joint competition. I will give predictions each week rather than by the designated rounds. Predictions are based on all games played last year in either the initial Super Rugby competition and then the separate country competitions. I am not sure how that will work for the combined competition due to start in May.
This forecast is obviously after the fact but I decided to publish it for completeness.
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Crusaders | 14.49 | 14.49 | 0.00 |
| Blues | 7.80 | 7.80 | 0.00 |
| Hurricanes | 7.13 | 7.13 | 0.00 |
| Chiefs | 4.38 | 4.38 | 0.00 |
| Highlanders | 2.70 | 2.70 | -0.00 |
| Reds | 1.59 | 1.59 | -0.00 |
| Brumbies | 1.47 | 1.47 | -0.00 |
| Rebels | -3.51 | -3.51 | 0.00 |
| Waratahs | -5.02 | -5.02 | 0.00 |
| Western Force | -13.05 | -13.05 | -0.00 |
Predictions for Week 1
Here are the predictions for Week 1. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Reds vs. Waratahs | Feb 19 | Reds | 12.10 |
| 2 | Western Force vs. Brumbies | Feb 19 | Brumbies | -9.00 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »