Top 14 Predictions for Round 17
Team Ratings for Round 17
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stade Toulousain | 8.62 | 4.80 | 3.80 |
| La Rochelle | 7.28 | 2.32 | 5.00 |
| Racing-Metro 92 | 6.67 | 6.21 | 0.50 |
| Bordeaux-Begles | 4.90 | 2.83 | 2.10 |
| Clermont Auvergne | 4.85 | 3.22 | 1.60 |
| RC Toulonnais | 3.53 | 3.56 | -0.00 |
| Lyon Rugby | 3.18 | 5.61 | -2.40 |
| Montpellier | 0.55 | 2.30 | -1.80 |
| Stade Francais Paris | -1.20 | -3.22 | 2.00 |
| Castres Olympique | -2.04 | -0.47 | -1.60 |
| Brive | -3.08 | -3.26 | 0.20 |
| Section Paloise | -4.00 | -4.48 | 0.50 |
| Aviron Bayonnais | -6.03 | -4.13 | -1.90 |
| SU Agen | -12.65 | -4.72 | -7.90 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 115 matches played, 75 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 65.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aviron Bayonnais vs. Brive | Feb 15 | 26 – 23 | 3.70 | TRUE |
| 2 | Bordeaux-Begles vs. Stade Francais Paris | Feb 14 | 44 – 6 | 9.00 | TRUE |
| 3 | Castres Olympique vs. Montpellier | Feb 14 | 48 – 17 | 1.70 | TRUE |
| 4 | Racing-Metro 92 vs. Lyon Rugby | Feb 14 | 34 – 26 | 10.00 | TRUE |
| 5 | RC Toulonnais vs. La Rochelle | Feb 15 | 11 – 29 | 3.30 | FALSE |
| 6 | Stade Toulousain vs. Section Paloise | Feb 13 | 31 – 9 | 15.60 | TRUE |
Predictions for Round 17
Here are the predictions for Round 17. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brive vs. Bordeaux-Begles | Feb 22 | Bordeaux-Begles | -2.50 |
| 2 | Clermont Auvergne vs. Aviron Bayonnais | Feb 21 | Clermont Auvergne | 14.80 |
| 3 | La Rochelle vs. Stade Francais Paris | Feb 21 | La Rochelle | 12.90 |
| 4 | Lyon Rugby vs. Stade Toulousain | Feb 22 | Lyon Rugby | 0.90 |
| 5 | Racing-Metro 92 vs. Castres Olympique | Feb 20 | Racing-Metro 92 | 13.70 |
| 6 | Section Paloise vs. RC Toulonnais | Feb 21 | RC Toulonnais | -1.20 |
| 7 | SU Agen vs. Montpellier | Feb 21 | Montpellier | -6.80 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »