Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 10
Team Ratings for Round 10
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Exeter Chiefs | 7.05 | 7.35 | -0.30 |
| Bristol | 4.00 | 1.28 | 2.70 |
| Sale Sharks | 3.52 | 4.96 | -1.40 |
| Wasps | 2.54 | 5.66 | -3.10 |
| Harlequins | 1.35 | -1.08 | 2.40 |
| Northampton Saints | -1.04 | -2.48 | 1.40 |
| Bath | -2.01 | 2.14 | -4.10 |
| Gloucester | -3.06 | -1.02 | -2.00 |
| Leicester Tigers | -5.61 | -6.14 | 0.50 |
| Newcastle Falcons | -6.17 | -10.00 | 3.80 |
| London Irish | -6.31 | -8.05 | 1.70 |
| Worcester Warriors | -7.35 | -5.71 | -1.60 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 48 matches played, 28 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 58.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Exeter Chiefs vs. London Irish | Feb 14 | 26 – 3 | 17.10 | TRUE |
| 2 | Gloucester vs. Bristol | Feb 13 | 17 – 18 | -2.80 | TRUE |
| 3 | Harlequins vs. Leicester Tigers | Feb 14 | 37 – 24 | 11.20 | TRUE |
| 4 | Sale Sharks vs. Bath | Feb 13 | 22 – 27 | 11.80 | FALSE |
| 5 | Worcester Warriors vs. Wasps | Feb 15 | 13 – 17 | -5.70 | TRUE |
Predictions for Round 10
Here are the predictions for Round 10. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bath vs. Gloucester | Feb 20 | Bath | 5.50 |
| 2 | Exeter Chiefs vs. Northampton Saints | Feb 21 | Exeter Chiefs | 12.60 |
| 3 | Harlequins vs. Sale Sharks | Feb 21 | Harlequins | 2.30 |
| 4 | Leicester Tigers vs. Wasps | Feb 21 | Wasps | -3.60 |
| 5 | London Irish vs. Bristol | Feb 22 | Bristol | -5.80 |
| 6 | Worcester Warriors vs. Newcastle Falcons | Feb 21 | Worcester Warriors | 3.30 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »