Posts from January 2021 (23)

January 5, 2021

Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 6

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Team Ratings for Round 6

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Exeter Chiefs 8.47 7.35 1.10
Wasps 4.99 5.66 -0.70
Sale Sharks 3.90 4.96 -1.10
Bristol 1.92 1.28 0.60
Bath 0.08 2.14 -2.10
Harlequins -0.97 -1.08 0.10
Gloucester -1.66 -1.02 -0.60
Northampton Saints -2.37 -2.48 0.10
Leicester Tigers -5.78 -6.14 0.40
Newcastle Falcons -6.77 -10.00 3.20
London Irish -7.17 -8.05 0.90
Worcester Warriors -7.73 -5.71 -2.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 26 matches played, 15 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 57.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bristol vs. Newcastle Falcons Jan 02 29 – 17 13.40 TRUE
2 Wasps vs. Exeter Chiefs Jan 03 34 – 5 -1.90 FALSE
3 Gloucester vs. Sale Sharks Jan 03 19 – 22 -0.70 TRUE
4 Leicester Tigers vs. Bath Jan 04 36 – 31 -2.20 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 6

Here are the predictions for Round 6. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bath vs. Wasps Jan 09 Wasps -0.40
2 Sale Sharks vs. Worcester Warriors Jan 09 Sale Sharks 16.10
3 Exeter Chiefs vs. Bristol Jan 10 Exeter Chiefs 11.10
4 Newcastle Falcons vs. Gloucester Jan 10 Gloucester -0.60
5 Northampton Saints vs. Leicester Tigers Jan 10 Northampton Saints 7.90
6 Harlequins vs. London Irish Jan 11 Harlequins 10.70

 

Pro14 Predictions for Round 11

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Team Ratings for Round 11

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leinster 18.31 16.52 1.80
Munster 10.09 9.90 0.20
Ulster 8.54 4.58 4.00
Edinburgh 3.49 5.49 -2.00
Glasgow Warriors 3.35 5.66 -2.30
Scarlets 2.30 1.98 0.30
Connacht 1.63 0.70 0.90
Cheetahs -0.46 -0.46 0.00
Cardiff Blues -1.27 0.08 -1.30
Ospreys -2.63 -2.82 0.20
Treviso -5.15 -3.50 -1.60
Dragons -7.45 -7.85 0.40
Southern Kings -14.92 -14.92 0.00
Zebre -15.82 -15.37 -0.50

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 52 matches played, 35 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 67.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Treviso vs. Zebre Jan 03 15 – 24 17.50 FALSE
2 Cardiff Blues vs. Ospreys Jan 03 3 – 17 7.90 FALSE
3 Edinburgh vs. Glasgow Warriors Jan 03 10 – 7 5.60 TRUE
4 Leinster vs. Connacht Jan 03 24 – 35 23.80 FALSE
5 Scarlets vs. Dragons Jan 03 20 – 3 14.30 TRUE
6 Ulster vs. Munster Jan 03 15 – 10 3.10 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 11

Here are the predictions for Round 11. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Cardiff Blues vs. Scarlets Jan 10 Cardiff Blues 1.40
2 Connacht vs. Munster Jan 10 Munster -3.50
3 Dragons vs. Ospreys Jan 10 Dragons 0.20
4 Glasgow Warriors vs. Treviso Jan 10 Glasgow Warriors 15.00
5 Leinster vs. Ulster Jan 10 Leinster 14.80
6 Zebre vs. Edinburgh Jan 10 Edinburgh -12.80

 

Currie Cup Predictions for Round 7

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Team Ratings for Round 7

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Bulls 7.63 6.16 1.50
Sharks 4.48 5.63 -1.20
Western Province 4.26 5.26 -1.00
Lions 3.54 1.46 2.10
Cheetahs -2.30 -2.96 0.70
Pumas -8.24 -6.66 -1.60
Griquas -9.37 -8.90 -0.50

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 16 matches played, 13 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 81.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Pumas vs. Lions Jan 02 25 – 33 -7.10 TRUE
2 Sharks vs. Griquas Jan 02 47 – 19 16.80 TRUE
3 Cheetahs vs. Western Province Jan 02 29 – 31 -2.10 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 7

Here are the predictions for Round 7. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Pumas vs. Bulls Jan 08 Bulls -11.40
2 Griquas vs. Cheetahs Jan 09 Cheetahs -2.60
3 Western Province vs. Sharks Jan 09 Western Province 4.30

 

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