Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 7
Team Ratings for Round 7
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
---|---|---|---|
Exeter Chiefs | 7.28 | 7.35 | -0.10 |
Wasps | 5.44 | 5.66 | -0.20 |
Sale Sharks | 3.37 | 4.96 | -1.60 |
Bristol | 3.11 | 1.28 | 1.80 |
Bath | -0.37 | 2.14 | -2.50 |
Harlequins | -1.57 | -1.08 | -0.50 |
Gloucester | -2.35 | -1.02 | -1.30 |
Northampton Saints | -2.37 | -2.48 | 0.10 |
Leicester Tigers | -5.78 | -6.14 | 0.40 |
Newcastle Falcons | -6.08 | -10.00 | 3.90 |
London Irish | -6.57 | -8.05 | 1.50 |
Worcester Warriors | -7.20 | -5.71 | -1.50 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 31 matches played, 17 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 54.8%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Bath vs. Wasps | Jan 09 | 44 – 52 | -0.40 | TRUE |
2 | Sale Sharks vs. Worcester Warriors | Jan 09 | 20 – 13 | 16.10 | TRUE |
3 | Exeter Chiefs vs. Bristol | Jan 10 | 7 – 20 | 11.10 | FALSE |
4 | Newcastle Falcons vs. Gloucester | Jan 10 | 22 – 10 | -0.60 | FALSE |
5 | Harlequins vs. London Irish | Jan 11 | 27 – 27 | 10.70 | FALSE |
Predictions for Round 7
Here are the predictions for Round 7. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Bristol vs. Bath | Jan 30 | Bristol | 8.00 |
2 | Gloucester vs. Northampton Saints | Jan 31 | Gloucester | 4.50 |
3 | Leicester Tigers vs. Sale Sharks | Jan 31 | Sale Sharks | -4.60 |
4 | London Irish vs. Newcastle Falcons | Feb 01 | London Irish | 4.00 |
5 | Wasps vs. Harlequins | Feb 01 | Wasps | 11.50 |
6 | Worcester Warriors vs. Exeter Chiefs | Jan 31 | Exeter Chiefs | -10.00 |