Currie Cup Predictions for the SemiFinals
Team Ratings for the SemiFinals
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bulls | 4.93 | 6.16 | -1.20 |
| Sharks | 4.48 | 5.63 | -1.20 |
| Western Province | 4.26 | 5.26 | -1.00 |
| Lions | 3.67 | 1.46 | 2.20 |
| Cheetahs | -2.17 | -2.96 | 0.80 |
| Pumas | -5.67 | -6.66 | 1.00 |
| Griquas | -9.50 | -8.90 | -0.60 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 19 matches played, 15 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 78.9%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bulls vs. Lions | Jan 07 | 22 – 15 | 8.70 | TRUE |
Predictions for the SemiFinals
Here are the predictions for the SemiFinals. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bulls vs. Lions | Jan 24 | Bulls | 5.80 |
| 2 | Western Province vs. Sharks | Jan 24 | Western Province | 4.30 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »
Bulls are playing at home
4 years ago
Thanks very much for the correction. I always appreciate being notified when I have details wrong. It is quite difficult at the moment with so many changes and I have to do a lot of data entry by hand rather than use programs to drag information from websites to update fixtures and results.
I have updated the forecast for that game.
4 years ago
Both games are on the 23rd :)
4 years ago
Thanks for the advice. My match dates are New Zealand time, and I have the games on the 24th at 1am and 3:30am New Zealand time. Using New Zealand time is a function of how I obtain the data and it would be a pain to change to local times. Note that this applies to all competitions which I forecast.
As I said before though, I welcome comments and corrections, and I do thank you for pointing this out.
4 years ago