Pro14 Predictions for Postponed Matches
Team Ratings for Postponed Matches
Another last minute change that I just picked up. This is a postponed game from Round 9. There are now 2 postponed games from Round 11. I can see the logic that both these teams are now free to play and are both in Italy; it is just a nightmare to keep up with all the changes. I don’t need to modify my predictions for the other Round 11 games, they are as before but I will do a forecast after the result of this game to report the result of my forecast.
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Leinster | 18.31 | 16.52 | 1.80 |
| Munster | 10.09 | 9.90 | 0.20 |
| Ulster | 8.54 | 4.58 | 4.00 |
| Edinburgh | 3.49 | 5.49 | -2.00 |
| Glasgow Warriors | 3.35 | 5.66 | -2.30 |
| Scarlets | 2.30 | 1.98 | 0.30 |
| Connacht | 1.63 | 0.70 | 0.90 |
| Cheetahs | -0.46 | -0.46 | 0.00 |
| Cardiff Blues | -1.27 | 0.08 | -1.30 |
| Ospreys | -2.63 | -2.82 | 0.20 |
| Treviso | -5.15 | -3.50 | -1.60 |
| Dragons | -7.45 | -7.85 | 0.40 |
| Southern Kings | -14.92 | -14.92 | 0.00 |
| Zebre | -15.82 | -15.37 | -0.50 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 52 matches played, 35 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 67.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Treviso vs. Zebre | Jan 03 | 15 – 24 | 17.50 | FALSE |
| 2 | Cardiff Blues vs. Ospreys | Jan 03 | 3 – 17 | 7.90 | FALSE |
| 3 | Edinburgh vs. Glasgow Warriors | Jan 03 | 10 – 7 | 5.60 | TRUE |
| 4 | Leinster vs. Connacht | Jan 03 | 24 – 35 | 23.80 | FALSE |
| 5 | Scarlets vs. Dragons | Jan 03 | 20 – 3 | 14.30 | TRUE |
| 6 | Ulster vs. Munster | Jan 03 | 15 – 10 | 3.10 | TRUE |
Predictions for Postponed Matches
Here are the predictions for Postponed Matches. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Zebre vs. Treviso | Jan 10 | Treviso | -7.50 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »