Top 14 Predictions for Round 14
Team Ratings for Round 14
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
Note that because Lyon is to play Montpellier midweek, there will be a change to those two teams ratings. The changes are likely to be small, but given the closeness of the Brive versus Montpellier match could easily affect that prediction. To deal with this unusual situation, I will post an updated forecast after the Lyon versus Montpellier game, prior to the weekend games.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Racing-Metro 92 | 7.50 | 6.21 | 1.30 |
| Stade Toulousain | 6.47 | 4.80 | 1.70 |
| La Rochelle | 5.74 | 2.32 | 3.40 |
| Lyon Rugby | 4.29 | 5.61 | -1.30 |
| Clermont Auvergne | 3.74 | 3.22 | 0.50 |
| RC Toulonnais | 3.52 | 3.56 | -0.00 |
| Bordeaux-Begles | 2.63 | 2.83 | -0.20 |
| Montpellier | 1.57 | 2.30 | -0.70 |
| Stade Francais Paris | 0.56 | -3.22 | 3.80 |
| Castres Olympique | -1.96 | -0.47 | -1.50 |
| Section Paloise | -3.40 | -4.48 | 1.10 |
| Brive | -3.90 | -3.26 | -0.60 |
| Aviron Bayonnais | -4.85 | -4.13 | -0.70 |
| SU Agen | -11.33 | -4.72 | -6.60 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 83 matches played, 56 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 67.5%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bordeaux-Begles vs. RC Toulonnais | Jan 02 | 31 – 18 | 3.90 | TRUE |
| 2 | Clermont Auvergne vs. Racing-Metro 92 | Jan 02 | 22 – 24 | 2.30 | FALSE |
| 3 | Lyon Rugby vs. Castres Olympique | Jan 02 | 14 – 15 | 12.70 | FALSE |
| 4 | Montpellier vs. Stade Toulousain | Jan 02 | 9 – 16 | 1.30 | FALSE |
| 5 | Stade Francais Paris vs. Brive | Jan 02 | 51 – 21 | 8.60 | TRUE |
| 6 | SU Agen vs. La Rochelle | Jan 02 | 13 – 43 | -10.30 | TRUE |
Predictions for Round 14
Here are the predictions for Round 14. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bordeaux-Begles vs. Lyon Rugby | Jan 09 | Bordeaux-Begles | 3.80 |
| 2 | Brive vs. Montpellier | Jan 09 | Brive | 0.00 |
| 3 | Castres Olympique vs. SU Agen | Jan 09 | Castres Olympique | 14.90 |
| 4 | Racing-Metro 92 vs. La Rochelle | Jan 09 | Racing-Metro 92 | 7.30 |
| 5 | RC Toulonnais vs. Aviron Bayonnais | Jan 09 | RC Toulonnais | 13.90 |
| 6 | Section Paloise vs. Clermont Auvergne | Jan 09 | Clermont Auvergne | -1.60 |
| 7 | Stade Toulousain vs. Stade Francais Paris | Jan 09 | Stade Toulousain | 11.40 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »