Pro14 Predictions for Round 11
Team Ratings for Round 11
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Leinster | 18.31 | 16.52 | 1.80 |
| Munster | 10.09 | 9.90 | 0.20 |
| Ulster | 8.54 | 4.58 | 4.00 |
| Edinburgh | 3.49 | 5.49 | -2.00 |
| Glasgow Warriors | 3.35 | 5.66 | -2.30 |
| Scarlets | 2.30 | 1.98 | 0.30 |
| Connacht | 1.63 | 0.70 | 0.90 |
| Cheetahs | -0.46 | -0.46 | 0.00 |
| Cardiff Blues | -1.27 | 0.08 | -1.30 |
| Ospreys | -2.63 | -2.82 | 0.20 |
| Treviso | -5.15 | -3.50 | -1.60 |
| Dragons | -7.45 | -7.85 | 0.40 |
| Southern Kings | -14.92 | -14.92 | 0.00 |
| Zebre | -15.82 | -15.37 | -0.50 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 52 matches played, 35 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 67.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Treviso vs. Zebre | Jan 03 | 15 – 24 | 17.50 | FALSE |
| 2 | Cardiff Blues vs. Ospreys | Jan 03 | 3 – 17 | 7.90 | FALSE |
| 3 | Edinburgh vs. Glasgow Warriors | Jan 03 | 10 – 7 | 5.60 | TRUE |
| 4 | Leinster vs. Connacht | Jan 03 | 24 – 35 | 23.80 | FALSE |
| 5 | Scarlets vs. Dragons | Jan 03 | 20 – 3 | 14.30 | TRUE |
| 6 | Ulster vs. Munster | Jan 03 | 15 – 10 | 3.10 | TRUE |
Predictions for Round 11
Here are the predictions for Round 11. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cardiff Blues vs. Scarlets | Jan 10 | Cardiff Blues | 1.40 |
| 2 | Connacht vs. Munster | Jan 10 | Munster | -3.50 |
| 3 | Dragons vs. Ospreys | Jan 10 | Dragons | 0.20 |
| 4 | Glasgow Warriors vs. Treviso | Jan 10 | Glasgow Warriors | 15.00 |
| 5 | Leinster vs. Ulster | Jan 10 | Leinster | 14.80 |
| 6 | Zebre vs. Edinburgh | Jan 10 | Edinburgh | -12.80 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »