Posts from December 2020 (23)

December 1, 2020

Pro14 Predictions for Rounds 4 and 5 Postponed Matches

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Team Ratings for Rounds 4 and 5 Postponed Matches

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leinster 19.39 16.52 2.90
Munster 10.28 9.90 0.40
Ulster 7.88 4.58 3.30
Glasgow Warriors 3.81 5.66 -1.90
Edinburgh 3.72 5.49 -1.80
Scarlets 1.89 1.98 -0.10
Connacht 1.42 0.70 0.70
Cardiff Blues -0.43 0.08 -0.50
Cheetahs -0.46 -0.46 0.00
Ospreys -3.28 -2.82 -0.50
Treviso -4.60 -3.50 -1.10
Dragons -8.01 -7.85 -0.20
Southern Kings -14.92 -14.92 0.00
Zebre -16.70 -15.37 -1.30

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 41 matches played, 28 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 68.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Cardiff Blues vs. Glasgow Warriors Nov 30 10 – 19 3.30 FALSE
2 Treviso vs. Dragons Dec 01 19 – 26 11.30 FALSE
3 Edinburgh vs. Ulster Dec 01 14 – 43 4.40 FALSE
4 Munster vs. Zebre Dec 01 52 – 3 32.20 TRUE

 

Predictions for Rounds 4 and 5 Postponed Matches

Here are the predictions for Rounds 4 and 5 Postponed Matches. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Connacht vs. Treviso Dec 05 Connacht 11.50
2 Glasgow Warriors vs. Dragons Dec 06 Glasgow Warriors 19.10

 

Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 3

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Team Ratings for Round 3

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Exeter Chiefs 9.85 7.35 2.50
Wasps 4.33 5.66 -1.30
Sale Sharks 4.11 4.96 -0.90
Bristol 1.95 1.28 0.70
Bath -0.27 2.14 -2.40
Harlequins -1.14 -1.08 -0.10
Gloucester -1.22 -1.02 -0.20
Northampton Saints -3.47 -2.48 -1.00
Leicester Tigers -5.59 -6.14 0.50
Worcester Warriors -6.37 -5.71 -0.70
London Irish -7.07 -8.05 1.00
Newcastle Falcons -8.21 -10.00 1.80

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 12 matches played, 7 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 58.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Newcastle Falcons vs. Sale Sharks Nov 28 15 – 13 -9.00 FALSE
2 Northampton Saints vs. Harlequins Nov 29 29 – 49 4.60 FALSE
3 Bristol vs. Worcester Warriors Nov 29 30 – 13 12.20 TRUE
4 Exeter Chiefs vs. Bath Nov 29 40 – 3 12.20 TRUE
5 Gloucester vs. Wasps Nov 29 40 – 24 -3.00 FALSE
6 London Irish vs. Leicester Tigers Nov 30 22 – 9 1.80 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 3

Here are the predictions for Round 3. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bristol vs. Northampton Saints Dec 05 Bristol 9.90
2 Leicester Tigers vs. Exeter Chiefs Dec 06 Exeter Chiefs -10.90
3 Wasps vs. Newcastle Falcons Dec 06 Wasps 17.00
4 Worcester Warriors vs. Bath Dec 06 Bath -1.60
5 London Irish vs. Sale Sharks Dec 07 Sale Sharks -6.70
6 Gloucester vs. Harlequins Dec 07 Gloucester 4.40

 

Top 14 Predictions for Round 11

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Team Ratings for Round 11

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Racing-Metro 92 6.20 6.21 -0.00
Stade Toulousain 5.71 4.80 0.90
Lyon Rugby 5.48 5.61 -0.10
Clermont Auvergne 5.07 3.22 1.90
La Rochelle 4.55 2.32 2.20
RC Toulonnais 3.31 3.56 -0.30
Bordeaux-Begles 3.30 2.83 0.50
Montpellier 1.73 2.30 -0.60
Stade Francais Paris -0.08 -3.22 3.10
Castres Olympique -2.57 -0.47 -2.10
Section Paloise -3.00 -4.48 1.50
Brive -4.34 -3.26 -1.10
Aviron Bayonnais -4.93 -4.13 -0.80
SU Agen -9.86 -4.72 -5.10

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 63 matches played, 44 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 69.8%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Castres Olympique vs. Clermont Auvergne Nov 28 14 – 40 -0.60 TRUE
2 La Rochelle vs. Brive Nov 28 36 – 22 14.50 TRUE
3 Lyon Rugby vs. Stade Francais Paris Nov 28 20 – 19 11.90 TRUE
4 Montpellier vs. Bordeaux-Begles Nov 28 22 – 23 4.70 FALSE
5 Racing-Metro 92 vs. Aviron Bayonnais Nov 28 43 – 17 15.80 TRUE
6 RC Toulonnais vs. Section Paloise Nov 28 18 – 13 12.90 TRUE
7 Stade Toulousain vs. SU Agen Nov 28 63 – 18 19.50 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 11

Here are the predictions for Round 11. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Aviron Bayonnais vs. Stade Toulousain Dec 05 Stade Toulousain -5.10
2 Bordeaux-Begles vs. Racing-Metro 92 Dec 05 Bordeaux-Begles 2.60
3 Clermont Auvergne vs. Montpellier Dec 05 Clermont Auvergne 8.80
4 Lyon Rugby vs. La Rochelle Dec 05 Lyon Rugby 6.40
5 Section Paloise vs. Castres Olympique Dec 05 Section Paloise 5.10
6 Stade Francais Paris vs. RC Toulonnais Dec 05 Stade Francais Paris 2.10
7 SU Agen vs. Brive Dec 05 Brive -0.00

 

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