Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 5
Team Ratings for Round 5
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Exeter Chiefs | 9.95 | 7.35 | 2.60 |
| Sale Sharks | 3.71 | 4.96 | -1.30 |
| Wasps | 3.51 | 5.66 | -2.20 |
| Bristol | 2.03 | 1.28 | 0.70 |
| Bath | 0.50 | 2.14 | -1.60 |
| Harlequins | -0.97 | -1.08 | 0.10 |
| Gloucester | -1.48 | -1.02 | -0.50 |
| Northampton Saints | -2.37 | -2.48 | 0.10 |
| Leicester Tigers | -6.21 | -6.14 | -0.10 |
| Newcastle Falcons | -6.89 | -10.00 | 3.10 |
| London Irish | -7.17 | -8.05 | 0.90 |
| Worcester Warriors | -7.73 | -5.71 | -2.00 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 22 matches played, 13 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 59.1%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Harlequins vs. Bristol | Dec 27 | 19 – 27 | 2.70 | FALSE |
| 2 | Exeter Chiefs vs. Gloucester | Dec 27 | 28 – 20 | 17.00 | TRUE |
| 3 | Northampton Saints vs. Worcester Warriors | Dec 27 | 29 – 10 | 8.70 | TRUE |
| 4 | Sale Sharks vs. Wasps | Dec 28 | 23 – 26 | 5.70 | FALSE |
Predictions for Round 5
Here are the predictions for Round 5. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bristol vs. Newcastle Falcons | Jan 02 | Bristol | 13.40 |
| 2 | Worcester Warriors vs. Harlequins | Jan 02 | Harlequins | -2.30 |
| 3 | Wasps vs. Exeter Chiefs | Jan 03 | Exeter Chiefs | -1.90 |
| 4 | Gloucester vs. Sale Sharks | Jan 03 | Sale Sharks | -0.70 |
| 5 | London Irish vs. Northampton Saints | Jan 04 | Northampton Saints | -0.30 |
| 6 | Leicester Tigers vs. Bath | Jan 04 | Bath | -2.20 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »