Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 4
Team Ratings for Round 4
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Exeter Chiefs | 10.47 | 7.35 | 3.10 |
| Sale Sharks | 4.22 | 4.96 | -0.70 |
| Wasps | 3.01 | 5.66 | -2.70 |
| Bristol | 1.43 | 1.28 | 0.10 |
| Bath | 0.50 | 2.14 | -1.60 |
| Harlequins | -0.37 | -1.08 | 0.70 |
| Gloucester | -1.99 | -1.02 | -1.00 |
| Northampton Saints | -2.95 | -2.48 | -0.50 |
| Leicester Tigers | -6.21 | -6.14 | -0.10 |
| Newcastle Falcons | -6.89 | -10.00 | 3.10 |
| Worcester Warriors | -7.15 | -5.71 | -1.40 |
| London Irish | -7.17 | -8.05 | 0.90 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 18 matches played, 11 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 61.1%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bristol vs. Northampton Saints | Dec 05 | 18 – 17 | 9.90 | TRUE |
| 2 | Leicester Tigers vs. Exeter Chiefs | Dec 06 | 13 – 35 | -10.90 | TRUE |
| 3 | Wasps vs. Newcastle Falcons | Dec 06 | 17 – 27 | 17.00 | FALSE |
| 4 | Worcester Warriors vs. Bath | Dec 06 | 17 – 33 | -1.60 | TRUE |
| 5 | London Irish vs. Sale Sharks | Dec 07 | 13 – 21 | -6.70 | TRUE |
| 6 | Gloucester vs. Harlequins | Dec 07 | 24 – 34 | 4.40 | FALSE |
Predictions for Round 4
Here are the predictions for Round 4. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bath vs. London Irish | Dec 27 | Bath | 12.20 |
| 2 | Harlequins vs. Bristol | Dec 27 | Harlequins | 2.70 |
| 3 | Newcastle Falcons vs. Leicester Tigers | Dec 27 | Newcastle Falcons | 3.80 |
| 4 | Exeter Chiefs vs. Gloucester | Dec 27 | Exeter Chiefs | 17.00 |
| 5 | Northampton Saints vs. Worcester Warriors | Dec 27 | Northampton Saints | 8.70 |
| 6 | Sale Sharks vs. Wasps | Dec 28 | Sale Sharks | 5.70 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »