Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 3
Team Ratings for Round 3
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Exeter Chiefs | 9.85 | 7.35 | 2.50 |
| Wasps | 4.33 | 5.66 | -1.30 |
| Sale Sharks | 4.11 | 4.96 | -0.90 |
| Bristol | 1.95 | 1.28 | 0.70 |
| Bath | -0.27 | 2.14 | -2.40 |
| Harlequins | -1.14 | -1.08 | -0.10 |
| Gloucester | -1.22 | -1.02 | -0.20 |
| Northampton Saints | -3.47 | -2.48 | -1.00 |
| Leicester Tigers | -5.59 | -6.14 | 0.50 |
| Worcester Warriors | -6.37 | -5.71 | -0.70 |
| London Irish | -7.07 | -8.05 | 1.00 |
| Newcastle Falcons | -8.21 | -10.00 | 1.80 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 12 matches played, 7 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 58.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Newcastle Falcons vs. Sale Sharks | Nov 28 | 15 – 13 | -9.00 | FALSE |
| 2 | Northampton Saints vs. Harlequins | Nov 29 | 29 – 49 | 4.60 | FALSE |
| 3 | Bristol vs. Worcester Warriors | Nov 29 | 30 – 13 | 12.20 | TRUE |
| 4 | Exeter Chiefs vs. Bath | Nov 29 | 40 – 3 | 12.20 | TRUE |
| 5 | Gloucester vs. Wasps | Nov 29 | 40 – 24 | -3.00 | FALSE |
| 6 | London Irish vs. Leicester Tigers | Nov 30 | 22 – 9 | 1.80 | TRUE |
Predictions for Round 3
Here are the predictions for Round 3. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bristol vs. Northampton Saints | Dec 05 | Bristol | 9.90 |
| 2 | Leicester Tigers vs. Exeter Chiefs | Dec 06 | Exeter Chiefs | -10.90 |
| 3 | Wasps vs. Newcastle Falcons | Dec 06 | Wasps | 17.00 |
| 4 | Worcester Warriors vs. Bath | Dec 06 | Bath | -1.60 |
| 5 | London Irish vs. Sale Sharks | Dec 07 | Sale Sharks | -6.70 |
| 6 | Gloucester vs. Harlequins | Dec 07 | Gloucester | 4.40 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »