Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 2
Team Ratings for Round 2
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Exeter Chiefs | 8.62 | 7.35 | 1.30 |
| Wasps | 5.30 | 5.66 | -0.40 |
| Sale Sharks | 4.73 | 4.96 | -0.20 |
| Bristol | 1.65 | 1.28 | 0.40 |
| Bath | 0.96 | 2.14 | -1.20 |
| Gloucester | -2.20 | -1.02 | -1.20 |
| Northampton Saints | -2.25 | -2.48 | 0.20 |
| Harlequins | -2.36 | -1.08 | -1.30 |
| Leicester Tigers | -4.96 | -6.14 | 1.20 |
| Worcester Warriors | -6.07 | -5.71 | -0.40 |
| London Irish | -7.69 | -8.05 | 0.40 |
| Newcastle Falcons | -8.82 | -10.00 | 1.20 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 6 matches played, 4 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 66.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Harlequins vs. Exeter Chiefs | Nov 21 | 3 – 33 | -3.90 | TRUE |
| 2 | Sale Sharks vs. Northampton Saints | Nov 21 | 32 – 23 | 11.90 | TRUE |
| 3 | Bath vs. Newcastle Falcons | Nov 21 | 12 – 19 | 16.60 | FALSE |
| 4 | Leicester Tigers vs. Gloucester | Nov 22 | 38 – 15 | -0.60 | FALSE |
| 5 | Worcester Warriors vs. London Irish | Nov 22 | 11 – 10 | 6.80 | TRUE |
| 6 | Wasps vs. Bristol | Nov 23 | 23 – 20 | 8.90 | TRUE |
Predictions for Round 2
Here are the predictions for Round 2. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Newcastle Falcons vs. Sale Sharks | Nov 28 | Sale Sharks | -9.00 |
| 2 | Northampton Saints vs. Harlequins | Nov 29 | Northampton Saints | 4.60 |
| 3 | Bristol vs. Worcester Warriors | Nov 29 | Bristol | 12.20 |
| 4 | Exeter Chiefs vs. Bath | Nov 29 | Exeter Chiefs | 12.20 |
| 5 | Gloucester vs. Wasps | Nov 29 | Wasps | -3.00 |
| 6 | London Irish vs. Leicester Tigers | Nov 30 | London Irish | 1.80 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »