Mitre 10 Cup Predictions for the Mitre 10 Cup Finals
Team Ratings for the Mitre 10 Cup Finals
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tasman | 11.99 | 15.13 | -3.10 |
| Auckland | 8.19 | 6.75 | 1.40 |
| Canterbury | 6.78 | 8.40 | -1.60 |
| Bay of Plenty | 5.97 | 8.21 | -2.20 |
| Wellington | 5.73 | 6.47 | -0.70 |
| North Harbour | 5.23 | 2.87 | 2.40 |
| Hawke’s Bay | 4.23 | 0.91 | 3.30 |
| Waikato | 2.02 | 1.31 | 0.70 |
| Otago | -3.44 | -4.03 | 0.60 |
| Taranaki | -4.73 | -4.42 | -0.30 |
| Northland | -5.36 | -8.71 | 3.40 |
| Counties Manukau | -10.75 | -8.18 | -2.60 |
| Southland | -10.78 | -14.04 | 3.30 |
| Manawatu | -14.98 | -10.57 | -4.40 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 74 matches played, 49 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 66.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Otago vs. Northland | Nov 20 | 19 – 32 | 7.50 | FALSE |
| 2 | Auckland vs. Waikato | Nov 21 | 23 – 18 | 10.00 | TRUE |
| 3 | Hawke’s Bay vs. Taranaki | Nov 21 | 59 – 23 | 8.60 | TRUE |
| 4 | Tasman vs. Bay of Plenty | Nov 21 | 19 – 10 | 9.00 | TRUE |
Predictions for the Mitre 10 Cup Finals
Here are the predictions for the Mitre 10 Cup Finals. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hawke’s Bay vs. Northland | Nov 27 | Hawke’s Bay | 12.60 |
| 2 | Auckland vs. Tasman | Nov 28 | Tasman | -0.80 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »
auckland win
4 years ago
When I produced my prediction as I usually do, I quickly reviewed it, saw I had Tasman by 0.8 points, and thought that I probably would have picked Auckland. My predictions though are totally as produced by the algorithm, no subjective interpretation of what it produces, so that was my prediction. And so it came to pass, Tasman by 1 point.
Note that the predictions are only point predictions and there is error around the prediction so to be so accurate is really a bit of luck. With the predicted margin being less than a point, the game could easily go either way and from what I have heard, that was the case in the game: it could well have resulted in a win to Auckland.
4 years ago