Top 14 Predictions for Round 9
Team Ratings for Round 9
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Racing-Metro 92 | 5.96 | 6.21 | -0.30 |
| Lyon Rugby | 5.91 | 5.61 | 0.30 |
| La Rochelle | 5.21 | 2.32 | 2.90 |
| Stade Toulousain | 4.67 | 4.80 | -0.10 |
| Clermont Auvergne | 4.24 | 3.22 | 1.00 |
| RC Toulonnais | 3.46 | 3.56 | -0.10 |
| Bordeaux-Begles | 3.04 | 2.83 | 0.20 |
| Montpellier | 2.55 | 2.30 | 0.20 |
| Stade Francais Paris | -1.55 | -3.22 | 1.70 |
| Castres Olympique | -1.64 | -0.47 | -1.20 |
| Section Paloise | -3.29 | -4.48 | 1.20 |
| Brive | -4.38 | -3.26 | -1.10 |
| Aviron Bayonnais | -5.30 | -4.13 | -1.20 |
| SU Agen | -8.33 | -4.72 | -3.60 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 47 matches played, 34 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 72.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | RC Toulonnais vs. Brive | Nov 06 | 35 – 19 | 12.90 | TRUE |
| 2 | Stade Toulousain vs. Castres Olympique | Nov 07 | 16 – 16 | 12.80 | FALSE |
| 3 | Bordeaux-Begles vs. Aviron Bayonnais | Nov 07 | 43 – 19 | 13.00 | TRUE |
| 4 | Racing-Metro 92 vs. Section Paloise | Nov 07 | 24 – 22 | 15.70 | TRUE |
| 5 | SU Agen vs. Lyon Rugby | Nov 08 | 16 – 19 | -9.70 | TRUE |
| 6 | La Rochelle vs. Clermont Auvergne | Nov 08 | 19 – 10 | 6.10 | TRUE |
Predictions for Round 9
Here are the predictions for Round 9. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aviron Bayonnais vs. Montpellier | Nov 14 | Montpellier | -2.40 |
| 2 | Brive vs. Racing-Metro 92 | Nov 14 | Racing-Metro 92 | -4.80 |
| 3 | Castres Olympique vs. Bordeaux-Begles | Nov 14 | Castres Olympique | 0.80 |
| 4 | Clermont Auvergne vs. Lyon Rugby | Nov 14 | Clermont Auvergne | 3.80 |
| 5 | Section Paloise vs. Stade Toulousain | Nov 14 | Stade Toulousain | -2.50 |
| 6 | Stade Francais Paris vs. La Rochelle | Nov 14 | La Rochelle | -1.30 |
| 7 | SU Agen vs. RC Toulonnais | Nov 14 | RC Toulonnais | -6.30 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »