Top 14 Predictions for Round 8
Team Ratings for Round 8
This is a new competition which I have had in mind for some time since it is one of the three top European competitions, the other two being the English Premiership and the Pro 14 (not solely European usually but happens to be this year so far).
I ran through the predictions for the first 7 rounds to get to this round but decided not to publish them. You will have to take it on trust that I didn’t fake it. I can report that the first couple of rounds were pretty dodgy, starting with only 50% correct. I expect to get a bit over 70% correct longer term in this competition based on my computations. I have data from the 2012-2013 season through to the incomplete 2019-2020 season which I used to create my initial ratings and to select parameters for the model.
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Racing-Metro 92 | 6.46 | 6.21 | 0.20 |
| Lyon Rugby | 6.38 | 5.61 | 0.80 |
| Stade Toulousain | 5.14 | 4.80 | 0.30 |
| La Rochelle | 5.01 | 2.32 | 2.70 |
| Clermont Auvergne | 4.45 | 3.22 | 1.20 |
| RC Toulonnais | 3.24 | 3.56 | -0.30 |
| Bordeaux-Begles | 2.62 | 2.83 | -0.20 |
| Montpellier | 2.55 | 2.30 | 0.20 |
| Stade Francais Paris | -1.55 | -3.22 | 1.70 |
| Castres Olympique | -2.11 | -0.47 | -1.60 |
| Section Paloise | -3.79 | -4.48 | 0.70 |
| Brive | -4.17 | -3.26 | -0.90 |
| Aviron Bayonnais | -4.88 | -4.13 | -0.80 |
| SU Agen | -8.79 | -4.72 | -4.10 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 41 matches played, 29 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 70.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brive vs. Clermont Auvergne | Oct 31 | 21 – 43 | -1.80 | TRUE |
| 2 | Castres Olympique vs. Racing-Metro 92 | Oct 31 | 10 – 13 | -3.10 | TRUE |
| 3 | Bordeaux-Begles vs. SU Agen | Oct 31 | 71 – 5 | 14.20 | TRUE |
| 4 | Section Paloise vs. La Rochelle | Nov 01 | 24 – 35 | -2.60 | TRUE |
| 5 | Stade Francais Paris vs. Stade Toulousain | Nov 01 | 48 – 14 | -3.30 | FALSE |
Predictions for Round 8
Here are the predictions for Round 8. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | RC Toulonnais vs. Brive | Nov 06 | RC Toulonnais | 12.90 |
| 2 | Stade Toulousain vs. Castres Olympique | Nov 07 | Stade Toulousain | 12.80 |
| 3 | Bordeaux-Begles vs. Aviron Bayonnais | Nov 07 | Bordeaux-Begles | 13.00 |
| 4 | Montpellier vs. Stade Francais Paris | Nov 07 | Montpellier | 9.60 |
| 5 | Racing-Metro 92 vs. Section Paloise | Nov 07 | Racing-Metro 92 | 15.70 |
| 6 | SU Agen vs. Lyon Rugby | Nov 08 | Lyon Rugby | -9.70 |
| 7 | La Rochelle vs. Clermont Auvergne | Nov 08 | La Rochelle | 6.10 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »