October 27, 2020

Super Rugby Unlocked Predictions for Round 4

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Team Ratings for Round 4

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Sharks 1.46 4.01 -2.50
Stormers 0.54 1.00 -0.50
Bulls -0.57 -1.45 0.90
Lions -3.76 -4.82 1.10
Cheetahs -8.43 -10.00 1.60
Pumas -10.19 -10.00 -0.20
Griquas -10.31 -10.00 -0.30

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 8 matches played, 5 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 62.5%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Pumas vs. Stormers Oct 23 37 – 42 -6.50 TRUE
2 Bulls vs. Sharks Oct 24 41 – 14 -1.20 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 4

Here are the predictions for Round 4. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Lions vs. Griquas Oct 30 Lions 11.10
2 Pumas vs. Sharks Oct 31 Sharks -7.10
3 Bulls vs. Stormers Oct 31 Bulls 3.40

 

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »