Mitre 10 Cup Predictions for Round 8
Team Ratings for Round 8
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tasman | 14.03 | 15.13 | -1.10 |
| Auckland | 8.82 | 6.75 | 2.10 |
| Wellington | 7.46 | 6.47 | 1.00 |
| Bay of Plenty | 5.91 | 8.21 | -2.30 |
| Canterbury | 5.54 | 8.40 | -2.90 |
| North Harbour | 4.14 | 2.87 | 1.30 |
| Waikato | 4.02 | 1.31 | 2.70 |
| Hawke’s Bay | 1.34 | 0.91 | 0.40 |
| Otago | -2.21 | -4.03 | 1.80 |
| Taranaki | -2.86 | -4.42 | 1.60 |
| Northland | -8.54 | -8.71 | 0.20 |
| Southland | -10.98 | -14.04 | 3.10 |
| Counties Manukau | -11.60 | -8.18 | -3.40 |
| Manawatu | -14.94 | -10.57 | -4.40 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 49 matches played, 33 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 67.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Otago vs. Northland | Oct 23 | 30 – 7 | 7.20 | TRUE |
| 2 | Bay of Plenty vs. Canterbury | Oct 24 | 44 – 8 | -0.90 | FALSE |
| 3 | Hawke’s Bay vs. Manawatu | Oct 24 | 47 – 12 | 16.90 | TRUE |
| 4 | North Harbour vs. Auckland | Oct 24 | 23 – 22 | -2.20 | FALSE |
| 5 | Counties Manukau vs. Wellington | Oct 25 | 20 – 53 | -13.60 | TRUE |
| 6 | Tasman vs. Southland | Oct 25 | 47 – 10 | 26.50 | TRUE |
| 7 | Waikato vs. Taranaki | Oct 25 | 27 – 20 | 10.50 | TRUE |
Predictions for Round 8
Here are the predictions for Round 8. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Canterbury vs. Otago | Oct 30 | Canterbury | 10.70 |
| 2 | Wellington vs. Tasman | Oct 31 | Tasman | -3.60 |
| 3 | Northland vs. North Harbour | Oct 31 | North Harbour | -9.70 |
| 4 | Auckland vs. Waikato | Oct 31 | Auckland | 7.80 |
| 5 | Bay of Plenty vs. Hawke’s Bay | Nov 01 | Bay of Plenty | 7.60 |
| 6 | Manawatu vs. Southland | Nov 01 | Southland | -1.00 |
| 7 | Taranaki vs. Counties Manukau | Nov 01 | Taranaki | 11.70 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »