Super Rugby Unlocked Predictions for Round 1
Team Ratings for Round 1
Another competition where I missed the start. I am surprised my South African readers didn’t alert me, or perhaps it crept up on them. I had been checking on whether the Currie Cup would be running but hadn’t got wind of this competition.
As before when I have missed the start, for completeness I will post my predictions for the games missed.
Note that there are difficulties with this competition due to the presence of three teams without recent Super Rugby results. I have followed my usual practice of assigning a rating of -10 in such cases. (As was done with the Force in Super Rugby Australia for example.)
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sharks | 4.01 | 4.01 | 0.00 |
| Stormers | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| Bulls | -1.45 | -1.45 | 0.00 |
| Lions | -4.82 | -4.82 | 0.00 |
| Cheetahs | -10.00 | -10.00 | 0.00 |
| Griquas | -10.00 | -10.00 | 0.00 |
| Pumas | -10.00 | -10.00 | 0.00 |
Predictions for Round 1
Here are the predictions for Round 1. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sharks vs. Lions | Oct 17 | Sharks | 13.30 |
| 2 | Cheetahs vs. Pumas | Oct 18 | Cheetahs | 4.50 |
| 3 | Bulls vs. Griquas | Oct 18 | Bulls | 13.10 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »