Mitre 10 Cup Predictions for Round 7
Team Ratings for Round 7
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tasman | 13.29 | 15.13 | -1.80 |
| Auckland | 9.08 | 6.75 | 2.30 |
| Canterbury | 7.68 | 8.40 | -0.70 |
| Wellington | 6.22 | 6.47 | -0.20 |
| Waikato | 4.31 | 1.31 | 3.00 |
| North Harbour | 3.87 | 2.87 | 1.00 |
| Bay of Plenty | 3.76 | 8.21 | -4.40 |
| Hawke’s Bay | 0.17 | 0.91 | -0.70 |
| Taranaki | -3.15 | -4.42 | 1.30 |
| Otago | -3.26 | -4.03 | 0.80 |
| Northland | -7.50 | -8.71 | 1.20 |
| Southland | -10.24 | -14.04 | 3.80 |
| Counties Manukau | -10.36 | -8.18 | -2.20 |
| Manawatu | -13.77 | -10.57 | -3.20 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 42 matches played, 28 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 66.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hawke’s Bay vs. Northland | Oct 16 | 33 – 17 | 9.70 | TRUE |
| 2 | Manawatu vs. Bay of Plenty | Oct 17 | 35 – 53 | -13.90 | TRUE |
| 3 | Auckland vs. Tasman | Oct 17 | 31 – 10 | -4.30 | FALSE |
| 4 | Southland vs. Taranaki | Oct 17 | 9 – 17 | -3.40 | TRUE |
| 5 | Canterbury vs. Waikato | Oct 18 | 15 – 16 | 7.60 | FALSE |
| 6 | Otago vs. Counties Manukau | Oct 18 | 40 – 22 | 8.80 | TRUE |
| 7 | Wellington vs. North Harbour | Oct 18 | 25 – 20 | 5.40 | TRUE |
Predictions for Round 7
Here are the predictions for Round 7. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Otago vs. Northland | Oct 23 | Otago | 7.20 |
| 2 | Bay of Plenty vs. Canterbury | Oct 24 | Canterbury | -0.90 |
| 3 | Hawke’s Bay vs. Manawatu | Oct 24 | Hawke’s Bay | 16.90 |
| 4 | North Harbour vs. Auckland | Oct 24 | Auckland | -2.20 |
| 5 | Counties Manukau vs. Wellington | Oct 25 | Wellington | -13.60 |
| 6 | Tasman vs. Southland | Oct 25 | Tasman | 26.50 |
| 7 | Waikato vs. Taranaki | Oct 25 | Waikato | 10.50 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »
I am excited to visit this page. I am betting every week for this teams here in Papua New Guinea and this betting tips helps me so much. Thanks to whoever is here making this prediction available to us.
Cheers
Philip Maiyeh
Port Moresby
Papua New Guinea
4 years ago
Appreciate your work putting this together every year.
Great stuff!
4 years ago
tips and predictions for Mitre 10
Round 8
Keep them posted…
Thanks…
4 years ago