Mitre 10 Cup Predictions for Round 6
Team Ratings for Round 6
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tasman | 14.85 | 15.13 | -0.30 |
| Canterbury | 8.31 | 8.40 | -0.10 |
| Auckland | 7.53 | 6.75 | 0.80 |
| Wellington | 6.26 | 6.47 | -0.20 |
| North Harbour | 3.83 | 2.87 | 1.00 |
| Waikato | 3.69 | 1.31 | 2.40 |
| Bay of Plenty | 3.43 | 8.21 | -4.80 |
| Hawke’s Bay | -0.30 | 0.91 | -1.20 |
| Taranaki | -3.52 | -4.42 | 0.90 |
| Otago | -3.92 | -4.03 | 0.10 |
| Northland | -7.03 | -8.71 | 1.70 |
| Counties Manukau | -9.70 | -8.18 | -1.50 |
| Southland | -9.88 | -14.04 | 4.20 |
| Manawatu | -13.44 | -10.57 | -2.90 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 35 matches played, 23 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 65.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Manawatu vs. Canterbury | Oct 09 | 10 – 34 | -17.80 | TRUE |
| 2 | Taranaki vs. Auckland | Oct 10 | 28 – 29 | -9.20 | TRUE |
| 3 | Wellington vs. Otago | Oct 10 | 34 – 35 | 15.30 | FALSE |
| 4 | Waikato vs. Counties Manukau | Oct 10 | 36 – 13 | 15.20 | TRUE |
| 5 | North Harbour vs. Hawke’s Bay | Oct 11 | 46 – 10 | 3.30 | TRUE |
| 6 | Tasman vs. Bay of Plenty | Oct 11 | 33 – 7 | 12.60 | TRUE |
| 7 | Northland vs. Southland | Oct 11 | 18 – 14 | 6.30 | TRUE |
Predictions for Round 6
Here are the predictions for Round 6. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hawke’s Bay vs. Northland | Oct 16 | Hawke’s Bay | 9.70 |
| 2 | Manawatu vs. Bay of Plenty | Oct 17 | Bay of Plenty | -13.90 |
| 3 | Auckland vs. Tasman | Oct 17 | Tasman | -4.30 |
| 4 | Southland vs. Taranaki | Oct 17 | Taranaki | -3.40 |
| 5 | Canterbury vs. Waikato | Oct 18 | Canterbury | 7.60 |
| 6 | Otago vs. Counties Manukau | Oct 18 | Otago | 8.80 |
| 7 | Wellington vs. North Harbour | Oct 18 | Wellington | 5.40 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »