Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 22
Team Ratings for Round 22
OK, so this is late, with only one game to play. It has been a crazy time trying to keep up with changes to fixtures. The Gloucester versus Northampton game was forfeited by Northampton and the result given to Gloucester 20-0. I think I will follow FlashScore on that game and ignore the allocated result.
I have also missed the start of the Pro14. I haven’t even sorted out the fixtures for that yet, or chosen parameters, but will catch up tomorrow I hope.
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Exeter Chiefs | 8.81 | 7.99 | 0.80 |
| Saracens | 6.98 | 9.34 | -2.40 |
| Sale Sharks | 6.91 | 0.17 | 6.70 |
| Wasps | 6.21 | 0.31 | 5.90 |
| Bath | 3.51 | 1.10 | 2.40 |
| Bristol | 2.62 | -2.77 | 5.40 |
| Gloucester | -0.72 | 0.58 | -1.30 |
| Harlequins | -0.99 | -0.81 | -0.20 |
| Northampton Saints | -3.94 | 0.25 | -4.20 |
| Worcester Warriors | -6.74 | -2.69 | -4.10 |
| Leicester Tigers | -7.56 | -1.76 | -5.80 |
| London Irish | -8.88 | -5.51 | -3.40 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 126 matches played, 83 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 65.9%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bath vs. Gloucester | Sep 23 | 31 – 20 | 8.30 | TRUE |
| 2 | Bristol vs. Leicester Tigers | Sep 29 | 40 – 3 | 12.20 | TRUE |
| 3 | Exeter Chiefs vs. London Irish | Sep 30 | 19 – 22 | 24.90 | FALSE |
| 4 | Harlequins vs. Wasps | Oct 01 | 23 – 32 | -1.80 | TRUE |
| 5 | Northampton Saints vs. Sale Sharks | Oct 01 | 14 – 34 | -4.70 | TRUE |
| 6 | Worcester Warriors vs. Saracens | Oct 01 | 40 – 27 | -11.70 | FALSE |
Predictions for Round 22
Here are the predictions for Round 22. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gloucester vs. Northampton Saints | Oct 05 | Gloucester | 7.70 |
| 2 | Leicester Tigers vs. Harlequins | Oct 05 | Harlequins | -2.10 |
| 3 | London Irish vs. Bristol | Oct 05 | Bristol | -7.00 |
| 4 | Sale Sharks vs. Worcester Warriors | Oct 08 | Sale Sharks | 18.10 |
| 5 | Saracens vs. Bath | Oct 05 | Saracens | 8.00 |
| 6 | Wasps vs. Exeter Chiefs | Oct 05 | Wasps | 1.90 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »