September 1, 2020
NRL Predictions for Round 17
Team Ratings for Round 17
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Storm | 14.51 | 12.73 | 1.80 |
| Roosters | 11.84 | 12.25 | -0.40 |
| Panthers | 6.74 | -0.13 | 6.90 |
| Raiders | 6.11 | 7.06 | -0.90 |
| Rabbitohs | 5.64 | 2.85 | 2.80 |
| Eels | 3.83 | 2.80 | 1.00 |
| Sharks | 1.01 | 1.81 | -0.80 |
| Knights | -1.67 | -5.92 | 4.30 |
| Warriors | -3.03 | -5.17 | 2.10 |
| Sea Eagles | -3.11 | 1.05 | -4.20 |
| Wests Tigers | -3.24 | -0.18 | -3.10 |
| Dragons | -4.11 | -6.14 | 2.00 |
| Bulldogs | -6.27 | -2.52 | -3.80 |
| Cowboys | -7.18 | -3.95 | -3.20 |
| Titans | -10.99 | -12.99 | 2.00 |
| Broncos | -12.07 | -5.53 | -6.50 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 128 matches played, 88 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 68.8%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Eels vs. Rabbitohs | Aug 27 | 0 – 38 | 3.50 | FALSE |
| 2 | Dragons vs. Titans | Aug 28 | 10 – 14 | 10.40 | FALSE |
| 3 | Roosters vs. Broncos | Aug 28 | 58 – 12 | 23.90 | TRUE |
| 4 | Knights vs. Warriors | Aug 29 | 6 – 36 | 9.00 | FALSE |
| 5 | Sharks vs. Cowboys | Aug 29 | 28 – 12 | 9.40 | TRUE |
| 6 | Panthers vs. Wests Tigers | Aug 29 | 30 – 6 | 10.60 | TRUE |
| 7 | Storm vs. Sea Eagles | Aug 30 | 30 – 6 | 16.70 | TRUE |
| 8 | Raiders vs. Bulldogs | Aug 30 | 34 – 20 | 14.50 | TRUE |
Predictions for Round 17
Here are the predictions for Round 17. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Broncos vs. Panthers | Sep 03 | Panthers | -16.80 |
| 2 | Knights vs. Sharks | Sep 04 | Sharks | -0.70 |
| 3 | Rabbitohs vs. Storm | Sep 04 | Storm | -6.90 |
| 4 | Bulldogs vs. Titans | Sep 05 | Bulldogs | 6.70 |
| 5 | Sea Eagles vs. Wests Tigers | Sep 05 | Sea Eagles | 2.10 |
| 6 | Raiders vs. Roosters | Sep 05 | Roosters | -3.70 |
| 7 | Eels vs. Warriors | Sep 06 | Eels | 11.40 |
| 8 | Cowboys vs. Dragons | Sep 06 | Dragons | -1.10 |