September 29, 2020

NRL Predictions for Finals Week 1

Team Ratings for Finals Week 1

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 13.50 12.73 0.80
Roosters 10.89 12.25 -1.40
Panthers 8.92 -0.13 9.10
Raiders 6.96 7.06 -0.10
Rabbitohs 6.41 2.85 3.60
Eels 2.38 2.80 -0.40
Sharks -0.56 1.81 -2.40
Knights -1.82 -5.92 4.10
Warriors -1.84 -5.17 3.30
Wests Tigers -3.07 -0.18 -2.90
Sea Eagles -4.77 1.05 -5.80
Dragons -4.95 -6.14 1.20
Titans -7.22 -12.99 5.80
Bulldogs -7.62 -2.52 -5.10
Cowboys -8.05 -3.95 -4.10
Broncos -11.16 -5.53 -5.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 160 matches played, 109 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 68.1%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Broncos vs. Cowboys Sep 24 32 – 16 -2.90 FALSE
2 Titans vs. Knights Sep 25 36 – 6 -6.40 FALSE
3 Rabbitohs vs. Roosters Sep 25 60 – 8 -6.70 FALSE
4 Bulldogs vs. Panthers Sep 26 0 – 42 -12.00 TRUE
5 Sharks vs. Raiders Sep 26 28 – 38 -4.80 TRUE
6 Wests Tigers vs. Eels Sep 26 24 – 28 -5.80 TRUE
7 Sea Eagles vs. Warriors Sep 27 28 – 40 3.10 FALSE
8 Dragons vs. Storm Sep 27 30 – 22 -18.80 FALSE

 

Predictions for Finals Week 1

Here are the predictions for Finals Week 1. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Panthers vs. Roosters Oct 02 Panthers 0.00
2 Raiders vs. Sharks Oct 03 Raiders 9.50
3 Storm vs. Eels Oct 03 Storm 11.10
4 Rabbitohs vs. Knights Oct 04 Rabbitohs 10.20

 

avatar

David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »

Comments

  • avatar
    peter whited

    what is panthers 00 outcome -no winner??

    4 years ago

    • avatar

      Panthers are the predicted winners. The prediction is given as 0.00 and is actually positive but then rounded to two decimal places. Essentially the probability of the Panthers winning is 0.5, but I give them as the winner because I never predict a draw.

      4 years ago