September 22, 2020

Mitre 10 Cup Predictions for Round 3

Team Ratings for Round 3

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Tasman 15.39 15.13 0.30
Canterbury 8.11 8.40 -0.30
Auckland 6.74 6.75 -0.00
Wellington 6.32 6.47 -0.10
Bay of Plenty 5.84 8.21 -2.40
Waikato 4.14 1.31 2.80
North Harbour 0.90 2.87 -2.00
Hawke’s Bay 0.02 0.91 -0.90
Taranaki -2.24 -4.42 2.20
Otago -4.94 -4.03 -0.90
Counties Manukau -8.18 -8.18 -0.00
Northland -8.42 -8.71 0.30
Southland -11.60 -14.04 2.40
Manawatu -12.00 -10.57 -1.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 14 matches played, 9 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 64.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Tasman vs. Northland Sep 18 54 – 21 25.70 TRUE
2 Waikato vs. North Harbour Sep 19 41 – 19 3.90 TRUE
3 Canterbury vs. Taranaki Sep 19 22 – 23 15.50 FALSE
4 Bay of Plenty vs. Southland Sep 19 17 – 14 23.00 TRUE
5 Hawke’s Bay vs. Counties Manukau Sep 20 31 – 17 10.60 TRUE
6 Manawatu vs. Otago Sep 20 25 – 36 -2.90 TRUE
7 Auckland vs. Wellington Sep 20 21 – 39 6.40 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 3

Here are the predictions for Round 3. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Wellington vs. Bay of Plenty Sep 25 Wellington 3.50
2 Tasman vs. Waikato Sep 26 Tasman 14.20
3 Southland vs. North Harbour Sep 26 North Harbour -9.50
4 Hawke’s Bay vs. Canterbury Sep 26 Canterbury -5.10
5 Auckland vs. Manawatu Sep 27 Auckland 21.70
6 Taranaki vs. Otago Sep 27 Taranaki 5.70
7 Counties Manukau vs. Northland Sep 27 Counties Manukau 3.20

 

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »