Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 21
Team Ratings for Round 21
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Exeter Chiefs | 10.17 | 7.99 | 2.20 |
| Saracens | 8.20 | 9.34 | -1.10 |
| Sale Sharks | 6.09 | 0.17 | 5.90 |
| Wasps | 5.79 | 0.31 | 5.50 |
| Bath | 3.29 | 1.10 | 2.20 |
| Bristol | 1.39 | -2.77 | 4.20 |
| Gloucester | -0.50 | 0.58 | -1.10 |
| Harlequins | -0.56 | -0.81 | 0.20 |
| Northampton Saints | -3.12 | 0.25 | -3.40 |
| Leicester Tigers | -6.33 | -1.76 | -4.60 |
| Worcester Warriors | -7.96 | -2.69 | -5.30 |
| London Irish | -10.23 | -5.51 | -4.70 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 120 matches played, 79 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 65.8%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wasps vs. Bristol | Sep 13 | 59 – 35 | 7.10 | TRUE |
| 2 | Leicester Tigers vs. Northampton Saints | Sep 13 | 28 – 24 | 0.80 | TRUE |
| 3 | London Irish vs. Worcester Warriors | Sep 14 | 25 – 40 | 4.20 | FALSE |
| 4 | Sale Sharks vs. Bath | Sep 14 | 22 – 37 | 9.80 | FALSE |
| 5 | Saracens vs. Exeter Chiefs | Sep 14 | 40 – 17 | 0.30 | TRUE |
| 6 | Gloucester vs. Harlequins | Sep 15 | 15 – 28 | 6.60 | FALSE |
Predictions for Round 21
Here are the predictions for Round 21. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bath vs. Gloucester | Sep 23 | Bath | 8.30 |
| 2 | Bristol vs. Leicester Tigers | Sep 29 | Bristol | 12.20 |
| 3 | Exeter Chiefs vs. London Irish | Sep 30 | Exeter Chiefs | 24.90 |
| 4 | Harlequins vs. Wasps | Oct 01 | Wasps | -1.80 |
| 5 | Northampton Saints vs. Sale Sharks | Oct 01 | Sale Sharks | -4.70 |
| 6 | Worcester Warriors vs. Saracens | Oct 01 | Saracens | -11.70 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »