NRL Predictions for Round 19
Team Ratings for Round 19
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Storm | 14.06 | 12.73 | 1.30 |
| Roosters | 12.92 | 12.25 | 0.70 |
| Panthers | 7.15 | -0.13 | 7.30 |
| Raiders | 6.79 | 7.06 | -0.30 |
| Rabbitohs | 5.40 | 2.85 | 2.60 |
| Eels | 2.79 | 2.80 | -0.00 |
| Sharks | -0.13 | 1.81 | -1.90 |
| Knights | -1.21 | -5.92 | 4.70 |
| Wests Tigers | -2.63 | -0.18 | -2.40 |
| Warriors | -2.78 | -5.17 | 2.40 |
| Sea Eagles | -2.81 | 1.05 | -3.90 |
| Dragons | -5.26 | -6.14 | 0.90 |
| Cowboys | -6.66 | -3.95 | -2.70 |
| Bulldogs | -7.45 | -2.52 | -4.90 |
| Titans | -9.89 | -12.99 | 3.10 |
| Broncos | -12.30 | -5.53 | -6.80 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 144 matches played, 100 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 69.4%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wests Tigers vs. Rabbitohs | Sep 10 | 24 – 26 | -6.70 | TRUE |
| 2 | Bulldogs vs. Sea Eagles | Sep 11 | 20 – 32 | -1.50 | TRUE |
| 3 | Panthers vs. Eels | Sep 11 | 20 – 2 | 5.00 | TRUE |
| 4 | Dragons vs. Raiders | Sep 12 | 8 – 37 | -8.10 | TRUE |
| 5 | Titans vs. Broncos | Sep 12 | 18 – 6 | 3.40 | TRUE |
| 6 | Roosters vs. Knights | Sep 12 | 42 – 12 | 14.60 | TRUE |
| 7 | Storm vs. Cowboys | Sep 13 | 36 – 20 | 21.40 | TRUE |
| 8 | Sharks vs. Warriors | Sep 13 | 22 – 14 | 6.90 | TRUE |
Predictions for Round 19
Here are the predictions for Round 19. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rabbitohs vs. Bulldogs | Sep 17 | Rabbitohs | 14.90 |
| 2 | Cowboys vs. Panthers | Sep 18 | Panthers | -11.80 |
| 3 | Eels vs. Broncos | Sep 18 | Eels | 17.10 |
| 4 | Sea Eagles vs. Titans | Sep 19 | Sea Eagles | 9.10 |
| 5 | Storm vs. Wests Tigers | Sep 19 | Storm | 16.70 |
| 6 | Roosters vs. Sharks | Sep 19 | Roosters | 15.00 |
| 7 | Raiders vs. Warriors | Sep 20 | Raiders | 14.10 |
| 8 | Knights vs. Dragons | Sep 20 | Knights | 6.10 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »
Easy wins this week yeehaww
4 years ago
Unfortunately not. Probabilities are one thing but randomness can still win. Two results incorrect this round already. Particularly the Rabbitohs Bulldogs game, the Rabbitohs were surely hot favourites and I had them as a high probability of winning but nonetheless, the Bulldogs defied the odds.
4 years ago