September 15, 2020

Mitre 10 Cup Predictions for Round 2

Team Ratings for Round 2

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Tasman 14.85 15.13 -0.30
Canterbury 9.20 8.40 0.80
Auckland 8.26 6.75 1.50
Bay of Plenty 7.12 8.21 -1.10
Wellington 4.81 6.47 -1.70
Waikato 2.97 1.31 1.70
North Harbour 2.08 2.87 -0.80
Hawke’s Bay -0.26 0.91 -1.20
Taranaki -3.33 -4.42 1.10
Otago -5.53 -4.03 -1.50
Northland -7.88 -8.71 0.80
Counties Manukau -7.90 -8.18 0.30
Manawatu -11.41 -10.57 -0.80
Southland -12.87 -14.04 1.20

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 7 matches played, 4 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 57.1%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 North Harbour vs. Canterbury Sep 11 29 – 43 -2.50 TRUE
2 Waikato vs. Wellington Sep 12 53 – 28 -2.20 FALSE
3 Otago vs. Auckland Sep 12 6 – 38 -7.80 TRUE
4 Counties Manukau vs. Tasman Sep 12 24 – 41 -20.30 TRUE
5 Northland vs. Manawatu Sep 13 43 – 26 4.90 TRUE
6 Taranaki vs. Bay of Plenty Sep 13 36 – 29 -9.60 FALSE
7 Southland vs. Hawke’s Bay Sep 13 16 – 10 -11.90 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 2

Here are the predictions for Round 2. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Tasman vs. Northland Sep 18 Tasman 25.70
2 Waikato vs. North Harbour Sep 19 Waikato 3.90
3 Canterbury vs. Taranaki Sep 19 Canterbury 15.50
4 Bay of Plenty vs. Southland Sep 19 Bay of Plenty 23.00
5 Hawke’s Bay vs. Counties Manukau Sep 20 Hawke’s Bay 10.60
6 Manawatu vs. Otago Sep 20 Otago -2.90
7 Auckland vs. Wellington Sep 20 Auckland 6.40

 

avatar

David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »