Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 19
Team Ratings for Round 19
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Exeter Chiefs | 11.52 | 7.99 | 3.50 |
| Saracens | 7.27 | 9.34 | -2.10 |
| Sale Sharks | 7.11 | 0.17 | 6.90 |
| Wasps | 3.29 | 0.31 | 3.00 |
| Bath | 1.47 | 1.10 | 0.40 |
| Bristol | 0.82 | -2.77 | 3.60 |
| Gloucester | 0.28 | 0.58 | -0.30 |
| Northampton Saints | -1.41 | 0.25 | -1.70 |
| Harlequins | -2.67 | -0.81 | -1.90 |
| Leicester Tigers | -4.98 | -1.76 | -3.20 |
| London Irish | -8.14 | -5.51 | -2.60 |
| Worcester Warriors | -8.35 | -2.69 | -5.70 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 108 matches played, 70 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 64.8%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Worcester Warriors vs. Bristol | Sep 05 | 13 – 36 | -2.60 | TRUE |
| 2 | Northampton Saints vs. Exeter Chiefs | Sep 05 | 19 – 22 | -9.20 | TRUE |
| 3 | Saracens vs. Wasps | Sep 05 | 18 – 28 | 10.60 | FALSE |
| 4 | Harlequins vs. Bath | Sep 05 | 27 – 41 | 2.10 | FALSE |
| 5 | Leicester Tigers vs. Sale Sharks | Sep 06 | 31 – 40 | -7.30 | TRUE |
| 6 | Gloucester vs. London Irish | Sep 06 | 36 – 23 | 12.90 | TRUE |
Predictions for Round 19
Here are the predictions for Round 19. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bristol vs. Northampton Saints | Sep 09 | Bristol | 6.70 |
| 2 | Wasps vs. Leicester Tigers | Sep 10 | Wasps | 12.80 |
| 3 | Exeter Chiefs vs. Gloucester | Sep 10 | Exeter Chiefs | 15.70 |
| 4 | London Irish vs. Harlequins | Sep 10 | Harlequins | -1.00 |
| 5 | Sale Sharks vs. Saracens | Sep 10 | Sale Sharks | 4.30 |
| 6 | Bath vs. Worcester Warriors | Sep 10 | Bath | 14.30 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »