Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 18
Team Ratings for Round 18
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Exeter Chiefs | 11.90 | 7.99 | 3.90 |
| Saracens | 8.31 | 9.34 | -1.00 |
| Sale Sharks | 6.97 | 0.17 | 6.80 |
| Wasps | 2.25 | 0.31 | 1.90 |
| Bath | 0.62 | 1.10 | -0.50 |
| Gloucester | 0.27 | 0.58 | -0.30 |
| Bristol | -0.21 | -2.77 | 2.60 |
| Northampton Saints | -1.79 | 0.25 | -2.00 |
| Harlequins | -1.83 | -0.81 | -1.00 |
| Leicester Tigers | -4.85 | -1.76 | -3.10 |
| Worcester Warriors | -7.31 | -2.69 | -4.60 |
| London Irish | -8.13 | -5.51 | -2.60 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 102 matches played, 66 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 64.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sale Sharks vs. Bristol | Aug 30 | 40 – 7 | 9.30 | TRUE |
| 2 | Harlequins vs. Northampton Saints | Aug 30 | 30 – 17 | 3.40 | TRUE |
| 3 | Exeter Chiefs vs. Worcester Warriors | Aug 31 | 59 – 7 | 20.70 | TRUE |
| 4 | Gloucester vs. Leicester Tigers | Aug 31 | 46 – 30 | 8.80 | TRUE |
| 5 | London Irish vs. Saracens | Aug 31 | 12 – 40 | -10.10 | TRUE |
| 6 | Bath vs. Wasps | Sep 01 | 23 – 27 | 3.80 | FALSE |
Predictions for Round 18
Here are the predictions for Round 18. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Worcester Warriors vs. Bristol | Sep 05 | Bristol | -2.60 |
| 2 | Northampton Saints vs. Exeter Chiefs | Sep 05 | Exeter Chiefs | -9.20 |
| 3 | Saracens vs. Wasps | Sep 05 | Saracens | 10.60 |
| 4 | Harlequins vs. Bath | Sep 05 | Harlequins | 2.10 |
| 5 | Leicester Tigers vs. Sale Sharks | Sep 06 | Sale Sharks | -7.30 |
| 6 | Gloucester vs. London Irish | Sep 06 | Gloucester | 12.90 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »