September 1, 2020

NRL Predictions for Round 17

Team Ratings for Round 17

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 14.51 12.73 1.80
Roosters 11.84 12.25 -0.40
Panthers 6.74 -0.13 6.90
Raiders 6.11 7.06 -0.90
Rabbitohs 5.64 2.85 2.80
Eels 3.83 2.80 1.00
Sharks 1.01 1.81 -0.80
Knights -1.67 -5.92 4.30
Warriors -3.03 -5.17 2.10
Sea Eagles -3.11 1.05 -4.20
Wests Tigers -3.24 -0.18 -3.10
Dragons -4.11 -6.14 2.00
Bulldogs -6.27 -2.52 -3.80
Cowboys -7.18 -3.95 -3.20
Titans -10.99 -12.99 2.00
Broncos -12.07 -5.53 -6.50

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 128 matches played, 88 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 68.8%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Eels vs. Rabbitohs Aug 27 0 – 38 3.50 FALSE
2 Dragons vs. Titans Aug 28 10 – 14 10.40 FALSE
3 Roosters vs. Broncos Aug 28 58 – 12 23.90 TRUE
4 Knights vs. Warriors Aug 29 6 – 36 9.00 FALSE
5 Sharks vs. Cowboys Aug 29 28 – 12 9.40 TRUE
6 Panthers vs. Wests Tigers Aug 29 30 – 6 10.60 TRUE
7 Storm vs. Sea Eagles Aug 30 30 – 6 16.70 TRUE
8 Raiders vs. Bulldogs Aug 30 34 – 20 14.50 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 17

Here are the predictions for Round 17. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Broncos vs. Panthers Sep 03 Panthers -16.80
2 Knights vs. Sharks Sep 04 Sharks -0.70
3 Rabbitohs vs. Storm Sep 04 Storm -6.90
4 Bulldogs vs. Titans Sep 05 Bulldogs 6.70
5 Sea Eagles vs. Wests Tigers Sep 05 Sea Eagles 2.10
6 Raiders vs. Roosters Sep 05 Roosters -3.70
7 Eels vs. Warriors Sep 06 Eels 11.40
8 Cowboys vs. Dragons Sep 06 Dragons -1.10

 

avatar

David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »