NRL Predictions for Finals Week 1
Team Ratings for Finals Week 1
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
---|---|---|---|
Storm | 13.50 | 12.73 | 0.80 |
Roosters | 10.89 | 12.25 | -1.40 |
Panthers | 8.92 | -0.13 | 9.10 |
Raiders | 6.96 | 7.06 | -0.10 |
Rabbitohs | 6.41 | 2.85 | 3.60 |
Eels | 2.38 | 2.80 | -0.40 |
Sharks | -0.56 | 1.81 | -2.40 |
Knights | -1.82 | -5.92 | 4.10 |
Warriors | -1.84 | -5.17 | 3.30 |
Wests Tigers | -3.07 | -0.18 | -2.90 |
Sea Eagles | -4.77 | 1.05 | -5.80 |
Dragons | -4.95 | -6.14 | 1.20 |
Titans | -7.22 | -12.99 | 5.80 |
Bulldogs | -7.62 | -2.52 | -5.10 |
Cowboys | -8.05 | -3.95 | -4.10 |
Broncos | -11.16 | -5.53 | -5.60 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 160 matches played, 109 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 68.1%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Broncos vs. Cowboys | Sep 24 | 32 – 16 | -2.90 | FALSE |
2 | Titans vs. Knights | Sep 25 | 36 – 6 | -6.40 | FALSE |
3 | Rabbitohs vs. Roosters | Sep 25 | 60 – 8 | -6.70 | FALSE |
4 | Bulldogs vs. Panthers | Sep 26 | 0 – 42 | -12.00 | TRUE |
5 | Sharks vs. Raiders | Sep 26 | 28 – 38 | -4.80 | TRUE |
6 | Wests Tigers vs. Eels | Sep 26 | 24 – 28 | -5.80 | TRUE |
7 | Sea Eagles vs. Warriors | Sep 27 | 28 – 40 | 3.10 | FALSE |
8 | Dragons vs. Storm | Sep 27 | 30 – 22 | -18.80 | FALSE |
Predictions for Finals Week 1
Here are the predictions for Finals Week 1. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Panthers vs. Roosters | Oct 02 | Panthers | 0.00 |
2 | Raiders vs. Sharks | Oct 03 | Raiders | 9.50 |
3 | Storm vs. Eels | Oct 03 | Storm | 11.10 |
4 | Rabbitohs vs. Knights | Oct 04 | Rabbitohs | 10.20 |