Pro14 Predictions for Round 15
Team Ratings for Round 15
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Leinster | 16.08 | 12.20 | 3.90 |
| Munster | 10.34 | 10.73 | -0.40 |
| Glasgow Warriors | 6.39 | 9.66 | -3.30 |
| Edinburgh | 4.76 | 1.24 | 3.50 |
| Ulster | 4.14 | 1.89 | 2.20 |
| Scarlets | 2.53 | 3.91 | -1.40 |
| Connacht | 1.14 | 2.68 | -1.50 |
| Cheetahs | -0.46 | -3.38 | 2.90 |
| Cardiff Blues | -0.47 | 0.54 | -1.00 |
| Ospreys | -3.27 | 2.80 | -6.10 |
| Treviso | -4.26 | -1.33 | -2.90 |
| Dragons | -7.40 | -9.31 | 1.90 |
| Zebre | -14.61 | -16.93 | 2.30 |
| Southern Kings | -14.92 | -14.70 | -0.20 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 95 matches played, 72 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 75.8%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Treviso vs. Zebre | Aug 22 | 13 – 17 | 16.90 | FALSE |
| 2 | Scarlets vs. Cardiff Blues | Aug 23 | 32 – 12 | 6.90 | TRUE |
| 3 | Edinburgh vs. Glasgow Warriors | Aug 23 | 15 – 30 | 4.80 | FALSE |
| 4 | Leinster vs. Munster | Aug 23 | 27 – 25 | 11.60 | TRUE |
| 5 | Ospreys vs. Dragons | Aug 23 | 20 – 20 | 10.00 | FALSE |
| 6 | Connacht vs. Ulster | Aug 24 | 26 – 20 | 1.10 | TRUE |
Predictions for Round 15
Here are the predictions for Round 15. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Glasgow Warriors vs. Edinburgh | Aug 29 | Glasgow Warriors | 6.60 |
| 2 | Dragons vs. Scarlets | Aug 30 | Scarlets | -4.90 |
| 3 | Ulster vs. Leinster | Aug 30 | Leinster | -6.90 |
| 4 | Munster vs. Connacht | Aug 31 | Munster | 14.20 |
| 5 | Cardiff Blues vs. Ospreys | Aug 31 | Cardiff Blues | 7.80 |
| 6 | Zebre vs. Treviso | Aug 31 | Treviso | -5.40 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »